جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « رگرسیون کوانتایل » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

One of the most important debates and challenges in macroeconomics is the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Because exchange rate fluctuations affect the demand of the entire economy through imports; Export and demand of money and change in the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, and the supply side of an economy affect the cost of imported intermediate goods channel, so the result of these two effects on production depends on the initial economic conditions of the country.Exchange rate impulses are of particular importance due to their adverse effects on the performance of economic variables and economic stability, because they cause uncertainty in the relative price trend, growth in production costs, decrease in profits, increase in risk in production, disruption in decision-making processes and deprivation of the ability to plan and The motivation to invest in economic activities is reduced and due to the data communication in economic activities, production in all economic activities is subject to the same or different degrees of negative effects of the exchange rate.Exchange rate is considered a key variable in the economy of any country, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the important challenges in macroeconomics. Exchange rate fluctuation as a sign of instability and uncertainty affects all important economic variables.

In this regard, the main goal of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on the gross domestic product in the selected country of Iran.

For this purpose, in this research, seasonal time series data of Iran's economy during the period (2006-2020) and in the framework of econometric models have been analyzed using the quantile regression method.

Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through the exchange rate, it is therefore necessary for the government in economic planning to the conditions of recession and economic prosperity of the country. andconsider more monitoring of the money market and reducing the level of fluctuations and currency shocks caused by speculation in order to increase the country's stability and stability.Exchange rate fluctuations are effective on the country's production and demand growth and some other variables; In the way that today the discussion is about the optimal amount of fluctuations. Therefore, the choice of foreign exchange policies according to theeconomic conditions, in such a way as to lead to the establishment of a suitable exchange rate system, can not only be a way to achieve growth and development, but in turn, it also affects other macro factors will be.The distinction of this article is with the studies done in the estimation method and scope of the time and place period and in the conditions of economic stagnation and prosperity. As mentioned in the rest of the article, many studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of exchange rates on production in Iran, regardless of asymmetry.The asymmetric effects of currency shocks, in addition to creating instability and economic impulses, can simultaneously and intermittently affect society in other dimensions of society, such as decreasing trust and increasing corruption and bribery. In these two and a half decades, the economy has faced many monetary expansions and inflation and currency shocks.Governments are interested in identifying appropriate solutions to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the most important macro goals is production at the level of full employment and stability and economic growth. Given that the exchange rate and shocks from it areone of the most important factors affecting production, therefore, the empirical knowledge of economic officials on the relationship between currency shocks and production is of great importance in policy making.The importance of this becomes more apparent when the government or economic officials want to make the right decision in business periods and in accordance with exchange rate fluctuations.The results showed that value has a symmetrical effect on production. Currency values and the ratio of capital creation to gross domestic product in several different cases (quartiles) and deciles have a positive and significant effect on production, and it is possible to increase investment and decrease the value of the national currency in Iran.The effect of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP, the degree of openness of the economy, the consumer price index on production in different quantiles (quartiles) and deciles is not asymmetric on production, so that in different quantiles of production (recession and economic prosperity), the reaction of production to these variables, Although They are different in appearance, but there is no statistically significant difference. Therefore, economic policy makers can use currency policies to influence production regardless of the issue of asymmetry in different business periods (recession and prosperity).

Experimental findings showed that the consumer price index and the degree of openness of the economy had a negative and significant effect on production in different quantities. Therefore, economic policy makers can control inflation in order to increase production.
Experimental evidence showed that although the effects of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP and the degree of openness of the economy and the consumer price index and exchange rate on production were significant and their coefficients were slightlydifferent in different quantiles. But the tests of asymmetry of the coefficients of the variables It showed that the effects of all variables on production are not significantly different, in other words, the effects of the variables on production were symmetrical.

The impact of technological advances on energy consumption is one of the topics that has been considered by many researchers and policymakers. Numerous researchers have tried to evaluate this relationship based on various technology indicators. The index of economic complexity is one of the new indicators that has been used in recent years to measure the level of knowledge and technology in the production structure. In this paper, the index of economic complexity along with energy prices and GDP have been used as determining factors of energy consumption in Iran during the period 1976 to 2018. Quantile regression results show that the coefficients of the variables are different in the deciles. The impact of economic complexity on energy consumption in all deciles has been positive, indicating the dominance of the rebound effect on energy consumption. Price elasticity is less than one in all deciles and less in the higher consumption deciles. In contrast, the income elasticity of energy demand was higher in the upper deciles

Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index is of great importance because with increasing uncertainty in oil prices, the systematic risk of the stock market index increases. On the other hand, in oil exporting countries such as Iran, oil revenues are among the most important and influential factors in macroeconomic variables and, consequently, financial market indicators. The present study investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index using the wavelet-based quantile regression model (MODWT-MRA) during the period April 2011 to April 2021 in Iran.. The results of the model estimate showed that with the increase in oil price uncertainty, the Tehran Stock Exchange index will decrease. According to the results, the effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in the first few quantiles has a smaller coefficient than the final quantiles, so the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in recent months is more than the first months. Also, the coefficient value on the component 5 scale is much higher than the component 1 scale; Therefore, the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange index in the short run is much greater than the value of this effect in the long run. This is because in the long run, the investor will adjust to the uncertainty.

Inflation is one of the economic problems that has affected many countries, including Iran. Inflation causes many social and economic problems, and most economists and politicians are looking for a solution to curb inflation. One of the variables that affects inflation in Iran is liquidity and monetary base. The country's bank balance sheet has been facing a widening imbalance due to the overdraft of the banks from the central bank and the government's budget deficit. Therefore, in this research, the impact of banks' imbalance on inflation in Iran has been estimated. In this research, the statistical data of 1370-1400 were used and the model used is quantile regression. The results of the research show that with the increase in the growth rate of banks' debt to the central bank, the growth rate of the government's debt to the central bank and the exchange rate in high and low ranges, inflation increases, as well as the growth rate of the production gap and The openness of the financial market has a significant and negative effect on inflation.the the the the ....the the the t h e t h e t . h . e . t h . e t h e

The trend of Iran's GDP in the last four decades has faced several shocks due to the revolution, the outbreak of war, the imposition of international sanctions and the spread of the Covid-19 disease, which had a decisive role in its direction. In this study, the influencing factors on business cycles in Iran were examined with the quantile regression approach for the time period of 1982-2022 and the results showed that Iran's economy has gone through about 4 business cycles during this time period. From the years 1980 to 1983, 1989 to 1993, 2001 to 2008 and 2015 to 2017, there have been periods of prosperity, as well as the periods of 1982 to 1985, 1991 to 2000, 2011 to 2015, and 2017 to 2020. that with the intensification and application of new sanctions and the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the emergence of the Corona pandemic in Iran from 2018 to 2020, Iran's economy has entered a period of rapid recession. And the results of applying the ARDL method show the negative effect of labor productivity variables, employment rate and foreign trade on business cycles. And the positive impact of final consumption expenditures , oil revenues and sanctions on business cycles (leading to the aggravation of economic recession) has been, Also, the results of the test of the effects of the variables on the symmetry and asymmetry of the cycles showed that the effects of these variables on the business cycles were symmetrical.

One of the innovations of the last decade in the field of Islamic monetary discussions is the publication of various Islamic securities.The release of different types of Islamic financing tools as an alternative to conventional bonds is considered one of the most important achievements of Islamic finance,which has found a special place in Islamic and non-Islamic countries,which are designed based on Islamic contracts and are a suitable alternative to bonds. Interest-bearing securities are especially bonds.The aim of the present study is to analyze the impact of Islamic financing tools on monetary policies in Iran with Taylor rule approach in the period of 1984-2020using quantile regression method.The results show that Islamic financing tools have a negative effect on the growth rate of the monetary base.In other words,with the increase in the use of Islamic financing tools,the monetary base growth rate has decreased,which shows that the behavior of monetary policy makers towards Islamic financing tools has been based on rules.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market on exchange rate instability in Iran. Multiple regression method has been used to estimate the research model. The GARCH model (1, 1) has also been used to estimate exchange rate volatility. The Stavarek index was used to calculate the central bank intervention index. The closer the index is to zero, the more flexible the exchange rate is and the closer the exchange rate regime is to floating. If it is one, it indicates that the currency system is completely stable, and if it is between zero and one, it indicates managed and moderate currency regimes. Finally, the closer this index is to one, the greater the degree of market intervention.The time period studied in this research is 1353 to 1396. The results show that firstly in the higher deciles there is a significant relationship between the two indicators of central bank intervention and exchange rate instability; So that from the fifth decile, the intensity increases significantly. Also, in the higher deciles, the rate of exchange rate instability is less effective than the central bank intervention index. In fact, per unit increase in central bank intervention, exchange rate volatility increases in the lower deciles less than in the lower deciles. In general, the central bank intervention index with a coefficient of 0.004 has a positive and significant effect on exchange rate instability. Given the positive effect of central bank interventions on exchange rate volatility, it is suggested that central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market be reduced and the exchange rate system should be changed from floating management to floating mode in order to determine the exchange rate according to its supply and demand by reducing inappropriate policies such as exchange rate pricing.

Investigating the effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index of countries dependent on oil revenues is of great importance. Oil revenues in oil exporting countries are among the most important and influential factors in macroeconomic variables. As the risk increases due to oil price uncertainty, the government budget is affected and this leads to the consumer price index being affected. The present study examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index using the quantile regression econometric model based on wavelet transformation during the period from April 2011 to April 2021 in Iran. The results of the empirical model estimation showed that the relationship between oil price uncertainty and consumer price index is inverse. In other words, with the increase of uncertainty in the price of oil, the consumer price index will decrease, and this effect is greater in the final digits than in the initial digits. Also, according to the estimation results of the wavelet transformation model, the negative effect of oil price uncertainty on the consumer price index is greater in the long term than in the short term.

The labor market in Iran is subject to bottlenecks that, if continued, could damage the national economy. High unemployment and low labor force participation are some of these problems. One of the factors affecting the level of employment and labor force participation rate is the corruption index. Therefore, in this study, using the quantitative regression method, the impact of various corruption index on the labor force participation rate and employment in selected member countries of the Islamic Cooperation Organization during the period 2018-2000 has been studied. Based on the results of model estimation, in all quantiles, the effect of corruption on labor force participation rate and employment is negative. Because corruption reduces the level of employment and labor force participation rates in selected countries by negatively affecting economic growth and the business environment and diverting government spending toward unproductive goals. Consumption level and institutional quality also have a positive effect on labor force participation rate and employment level in estimated quantiles. Also in the estimated quantiles, the impact of informal economy on labor force participation rate and employment level is negative. The effect of per capita income on the level of employment and labor force participation rate was both positive and negative.

This study seeks to investigate the asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on Iranian stock market returns using seasonal data from autumn 2008 to autumn 2021. For this purpose, the quantile regression model was examined in the quantiles of 0.10 (lower), 0.50 (middle), and 0.90 (higher) quantails which refer to Bearish, Normal and Bullish conditions in the stock market, respectively. The results show that the quantile estimation is not symmetrical and the positive fluctuations of oil prices in the bearish and bullish situations of the stock market have a negative and significant effect on the stock returns, and in the normal state, it does not have a significant effect on the stock returns. The effect of negative oil price fluctuations is positive and significant in all three situations of the stock market, but in the bullish situation, it has a greater effect on the stock returns than in the bearish situation. In the normal state of the stock market, oil price fluctuations should be considered symmetrically; This means that the effect of reducing oil price fluctuations is the same as the effect of its increase on the return of the Iranian stock market. Due to the fluctuating nature of oil prices in the world markets, some economic indicators of oil exporting countries, including the capital market, are subject to instability, and to predict the behavior of capital market investors, different market conditions must be analyzed differently from each other.

This paper investigates the effects of price changing of housing energy and transport fuels on household demand in 10 separate quantiles during the years 2003-2017 via a quantile regression approach.  The results indicate that the sign of the own price elasticities is theoretically expected. These two mentioned categories of goods in all consuming quantiles are Hicks-Allen Substitutes and while the price of one of these two categories increases and if also this price increase is accompanied by  consumer compensation, it is expected that the demand for the other category of goods will increase. In addition, the two categories housing energy and transport fuels have appeared as luxury goods in all consuming quantiles. Also, the highest percentage of consumption reduction due to a one percent increase in fuel price, after consumer compensation, is related to quantile 1 which means they were the least consuming households, and the lowest percentage is related to quantile 8, which is the most consuming quantile. But the least percentage of housing energy consumption reduction due to a one percent increase in its price, after consumer compensation, has occurred in low consuming quantile 2 and the most one has occurred in high consuming quantile 7.

Increasing people's participation in the capital market is one of the important discussions in the process of economic development. Housing as a capital good and stocks are important channels in the assets market. It is of high interest to investigate the influence of these markets on each other and how housing prices can influence them and interact with them. The current research is different in its contecnt and methodology than previous studies in the followimg ways: 1- Estimation of the asymmetric effects of housing prices on participation in the Tehran Stock Exchange. 2- Using the asymmetric quantile regression method to investigate the participation model in the Iranian stock market. The main aim of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of housing prices on the participation rate in the Iranian stock market. The method used is quantile regression as it allows to present the influence of independent variables in all parts of the distribution, especially in the beginning and end sequences, without violating the classical assumptions and outlier data in the estimation of coefficients. The variables presented in the model are: logarithm of stock market index, logarithm of gold price, logarithm of unofficial exchange rate, logarithm of housing price, logarithm of GDP per capita and interest rate. The time period of this research is 1991 to 2020. The results show that housing prices in different quantiles of participation in the stock market had negative and significant effects on stock market participation. The estimation results show that the absolute value of the currency elasticity of participation in the stock market is smaller than 1, with negative sign and significant. Among other results, the negative and significant effect of gold price and interest rate, mostly  in the upper deciles are worth noting. GDP per capita and stock market efficiency have had a positive and significant effect on participation in the stock market.

There are Limited domestic studies have analyzed household income and expenditure survey (HIES) data and determined the factors affecting household food expenditure. So, the analysis of the changes that have occurred in the consumption behavior of households is highly necessary, due to the many shocks, including the economic sanctions since 2018 and the outbreak of Corona in 2020, brought to Iran's economy. The current study has addressed this important issue. In this research, quantile regression was performed concerning 9 quantiles from 0.1 to 0.9 for 2-year 2016 as a relatively stable year and 2021 as a year after the occurrence of shocks on the summery of urban HIES data.Based on the obtained results, among the 16-variable considered in 2016, the gender, education level, and marital status of the head of the household and per capita subsidy received by the household members and in 2021, literacy status, education level, and marital status of the head of the household in None of the quantiles had a significant impact on household food expenditure. Therefore the household's head's gender and the per capita subsidy received by the household members, which were not considered in 2016, became significant in 2021. The noteworthy point is the growth in the per capita income coefficient in 2021 compared to 2016, which indicates the increase in the sensitivity of food expenses to income and the reduction of household food expenses sticking to their previous values, which can demonstrate the decline of the household's economic potential during this 5-year.

The Middle East is one of the most turbulent and tense regions in the world, which has been the site of many tensions at the national and international level since the past due to political, social, economic factors and abundant energy resources. Among the variables that have always been growing in the Middle East countries in recent decades- especially the oil countries, is defense spending, which has been affected by various factors. Examining the factors affecting defense spending in the Middle East countries will have broad policy implications for the countries-of this region and can be very useful. Therefore, the purpose of this article was.to investigate.factors affecting the demand function of military expenditures in the Middle East countries during the period of 1980-2019 with the quantile regression approach. The results of this study showed that GDP, oil price, foreign trade had.a.positive effect and civilian spending had a positive effect on foreign defense. Also, the military expenditures of other countries have had a positive and significant impact-on the-military expenditures of each country, which means.confirming the hypothesis of military.competition in the studied countries. Based on the other results of this study, the.effect of the effective factors on defense-spending in the studied.countries.was symmetrical.

Today, the tax system, as an essential factor directly related to the survival and development of the budget and economy, has become the core of theoretical and empirical research in financial and monetary classification. But taxes are influenced by many factors that differ in different countries. One of the essential cases is uncertainty in economic policies, which has wide-ranging effects on the performance of macroeconomics and various companies. Uncertainty in economic policy, the future, and corporate planning provide significant difficulties and result in a decline in the amount of economic activity, a decrease in corporate revenue, and an increase in the desire among corporations to broaden defensive tax policies. Therefore, it is necessary to include the effects of uncertainty in the experimental models that investigate the factors affecting the tax burden (as a defensive behavior). This research aims to investigate the impact of the amount of tax collection on the relationship between the uncertainty of economic policies and tax defensive behavior in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2018 with the quantile regression approach. The findings of this Paper showed that the effect of inflation uncertainty and Tobin's q-ratio index on taxpayers' defensive behavior was positive and asymmetric. Also, based on other results, the impact of other influential factors on the defensive behavior of taxpayers has been symmetrical. On the other hand, the effect of the tax collection variable on tax defensive behavior has been positive and significant, and the inclusion of this variable in the model has reduced the relationship between the uncertainty of economic activities and the defensive behavior of companies.

Monitoring and evaluating social welfare is one of the most important issues for policymakers in many countries, including developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of natural resource rents and good governance on the welfare of developing countries. To achieve the purpose of the study, from the econometric method of quantile panel data with fixed effects, the relationships of variables in different quantiles during the period 2007-2018 have been estimated. The results showed that the effect of natural resource rents on welfare in all quantiles is negative and significant so this effect is more pronounced in developing countries with low welfare. In other words, the existence of the phenomenon of the welfare curse in developing countries is confirmed. The results also showed that the effect of good governance in different quantiles is positive and significant. So good governance can increase prosperity in developing countries. Also, according to the results, other variables such as Urban population, employment rate, and environmental performance index in different quantiles have a positive and significant effect on welfare. In addition, the effect of gross capital formation on welfare is positive and significant In all quantiles except the fifth and sixth quantiles.

One of the most important challenges for policies concerning economic freedom is its inequalities effects. Mnay researches have examined the various channels and mechanisms in order to find the components of economic freedom which influences the distribution of income. Previous  studies on the relation between economic freedom and income inequality have produced varied results. The paper examines this relationship for two groups of countries based on high (18 country) and low (16 country) degrees of economic freedom. Using panel date during 2004-2018 with quintile regression, results showed that in both groups with different levels of economic freedom, increasing economic freedom at low and middle levels of income inequality, had improved income inequality, but increasing economic freedom in high levels of income inequality did not show any meaningful effect on income inequality. The implication of this research findings for Iran economy showed that when Gini index is lower than 41.4%, increasing economic freedom improves income inequality, while it is meaningless when Gini index is between 41.4 – 48.4%.

Due to the increase in food prices and limited access to qualified food resources, the impact of various factors on different food price distribution multiplexes was studied in this paper using the quantile regression approach with having capability of identifying nonlinear relationships. This study examines the effect of macro and policy variables such as agricultural value-added, exchange rate, money supply, world food price index, and government support index on Iran's food price index in the period 1383:1 to 1398:4. The results indicate that; the world food price index and exchange rate have a significantly positive non-linear impact on the food price index in all distribution quantiles. While the value-added of the agricultural sector and the government support index have a negative non-linear effect on the dependent variable. All variables in all quantiles had the same sign throughout the distribution, but the intensity of their effect was variable. The effect of the money supply variable was also significantly positive in all quantiles and has a downward slope which shows the existence of a non-linear relationship between this variable and the dependent variable. This variable has had the greatest effect in the first quantiles of food inflation, which shows that this variable is more effective than other variables in lower inflation.

Financial crises can quickly affect the real sector of the economy and be detrimental to the economy. Therefore, dealing with these crises as well as preparing for them should be among the most important economic priorities. It is worth noting in such a situation, concepts such as financial fragility become important which is one of the most important factors affecting corruption.

In this study, using the quantitative regression method, the effect of corruption on financial fragility in the period 2012-2021 has been studied. The statistical population of this research is includes companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange market, among these companies, 86 companies were selected as the research sample. 

The results of model estimation showed that high level of corruption (low level of corruption perception index) increases the financial fragility of companies and therefore confirms the inefficiency of corruption. Because corruption in various forms such as taking bribes to grant special privileges to a particular company, low-interest loans and financial and tax protections of some companies in the face of financial crises affect the financial fragility of companies. The size of companies also had a negative effect on financial fragility, but this effect was not statistically significant at the 5% level. The impact of tangible assets as well as fixed assets of companies on financial fragility is negative and significant. Because the increase in the level of fixed and tangible assets of companies indicates the high (increase) of total assets of the company and generally increases their ability to cope with financial crises as well as bankruptcy, thereby reducing the financial fragility of companies. The effect of financial leverage on the financial fragility of the company is positive and significant. Because the higher the financial leverage of the company and in other words, the higher the corporate debt compared to its assets, the higher the probability of financial crisis and the risk of bankruptcy in the companies under study in the face of economic cycles. Economic growth also has a negative impact on the financial fragility of the companies under study. Because the higher the economic growth rate, the higher the company's revenues due to this economic growth and the lower the probability of financial problems and shortages in the company, which in turn reduces the financial fragility of companies. Also, the effect of inflation on the financial fragility of the studied companies is positive and significant. Because rising inflation increases the total cost of companies, including the cost of purchasing raw materials and machinery, as well as other consumption and current costs, and thus increases the likelihood of financial crises and bankruptcy.

High levels of corruption increase the financial fragility of companies. Because the high corruption perception index (low level of corruption) is associated with a higher level than the Z-Score index (low financial fragility) and as a result, the second view confirms the impact of corruption on the economy or the theory of corruption inefficiency. Therefore, in order to reduce financial fragility, the relevant institutions should pay serious attention to dealing with corruption.

One of the most important issues in monetary and fiscal policy analysis is their efficiency or effectiveness, which tells policymakers about effectiveness of policies. In general, the effectiveness or effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies refers to the extent to which they affect equilibrium national output or income.  Therefore, in order to achieve its goals, the policymaker should be able to respond appropriately to the production gap and inflation accordingly, a policy rule covering the goals of the central bank should be used. In this study, in the framework of Taylor rule, the response of monetary and fiscal policies to the output gap has been investigated in the Iranian economy using the Quantile regression method over the period 1976-2018. The results show that by increasing the output gap in different quantities, monetary authorities do not show any reaction to the output gap. But government policymakers pursue an expansionary policy toward the output gap, which is contrary to Taylorchr('39')s rule, and the results confirm that government policymakers make policy at their will.