جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "asymmetric impact" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

This paper investigates the effect of positive and negative shocks from the shadow economy and financial development on energy consumption during the period of 1974–2014 in the short and long term using the non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The ratio of liquidity to GDP has been used as an indicator of financial development, and the volume of the shadow economy calculated by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) has also been used, using a multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) model. The results show that the effect of positive and negative shadows of the shadow economy and financial development on energy consumption in the long and short term is asymmetric, and this asymmetry is that in the short and long term, a negative shadow economy shock has a greater effect than a positive shock. In the long term, the positive shock of the financial development has a greater effect on energy consumption than its negative shock. The negative shock of the shadow economy with an interruption leads to an increase of 0.04 in energy consumption, but its positive shock reduces energy consumption by only 0.02. Also, the relationship between positive and negative shocks of financial development on energy consumption is direct. Therefore, in order to control energy consumption, investing in improving financial development through improved technology will lead to reducing environmental pollution and saving energy consumption.

This paper uses the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the short- and long -run effects of the negative and positive shocks of the shadow economy on financial development in Iran over the period 1974 - 2015. For this purpose, the ratio of liquidity to gross domestic product is used as an indicator of financial development. The shadow economy includes all market-based production activities that are deliberately hidden from government officials due to the escape or avoidance of payments, such as taxes and social security contributions. In this study, the MIMIC (multiple indicators and multiple causes) calculations by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) are used for estimating the shadow economy. The results show that the effects of positive and negative shocks of shadow economy on financial development are asymmetric in the short- and long-run. This asymmetry means that in the short- and long-run, the negative shock to shadow economy is more effective than its positive shock. Therefore, in order to maintain the current level of financial development, the government can monitor size of shadow economy through strict control of illegal activities in the short-run, identify the illegal activities, and reduce them in the long run‎.

Studying currency shocks impact on the stock market could be beneficial regarding to exchange rate fluctuations caused by various exchange policies in recent years. Therefore symmetrical or asymmetrical impacts of negative and positive dollar shockwaves in the market on indexes of chemical and basic metals industry are under investigation by weekly data collected since 2006 up to 2016 as these two industries have the most non-oil exports of Iran. First existence of long-term equilibrium relationship was examined by Pesaran Bound test and confirmed. Afterwards in addition to admitting asymmetric effect of positive and negative foreign exchange shocks on the indexes using WALD test, based on the results of the main model of the research which is the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), effects of increasing in dollar rate on both indexes are positive and meaningful and the effect of its decreasing is meaningless. In addition the extracted coefficients indicates deeper effects of free dollar rate on the chemical index in comparison with index of the basic metals. OPEC crude oil, which is the control variable considered in this article has a direct and significant effects on both indicators on the short and long term.