جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "demand" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

The study of Iran's position in the international trade network of natural gas shows that although Iran is the second country with natural gas resources in the world and has a special position in the transit of natural gas, it is not an important player in the international trade network of natural gas. One of the most important issues for the development of international gas trade is to examine the possibility of exporting Iran's natural gas in the near future. The present study tries to estimate and simulate an econometric model including macroeconomic and energy variables, analyze the outlook of domestic demand and balance of natural gas in different conditions of Iran's macroeconomics, and assess the feasibility of exporting natural gas. The simulation of different scenarios for the period 2022-2032 shows three findings. Firstly, continuing the current policies result in the undesirable trend of the TFP at the macroeconomic level and economic inefficiency in the energy sector. Secondly, macroeconomic policy reforms in order to raise economic growth result in a negative natural gas balance. Thirdly, for the reduction of energy intensity, the energy price reform is not a sufficient policy, and emphasizing the non-price factors towards technical progress in order to rise energy efficiency is important. In addition, making an investment decision for infrastructure development of potential natural gas supply is important as a necessary condition.

Sirjan city has increased the economic importance of Kerman province. Sirjan is the main transit point for goods to eastern Iran, as well as Europe and the Persian Gulf and the return route of all commercial goods is from Shahid Rajaei port of Hormozgan to Central Asian countries, Caucasus and Russia. This city has a significant role and position as a special economic hub based on the advantages of docking, in the economic structure of Kerman province and in the future, the importance of this economic position will increase. Also, Golgohar mining region with iron ore rich mines as one of the most important active mining and industrial hubs in the Middle East, has many potentials to become a large and competitive region in Iran and even in the world. Golgohar Mining and Industrial Company, as one of the main players in the region, with a production capacity of 8.5 million tons of concentrate and 5 million tons of pellets, has highlighted its role in the country's steel industry and as a special economic hub based on the advantages of docking, it has a significant role and position in the economic structure of Kerman province. also in the future, the importance of this economic position will increase. Whereas the role of transport in economic development and the creation of incentives to increase investment in this regard is undeniable; The process of selecting different transportation systems and combining them with each other is an important matter in planning the optimal development of Kerman province, because in the absence of the necessary information, transportation decisions regarding the existing demand are made based on experience. 

In this study, demand function of carrying minerals in the rail transportation system of Golgohar mine estimated with econometrics technique and panel data model during the period 2011-2017. And while introducing the factors affecting the demand for mineral transportation by rail, using the neural network, the future trend of demand for rail transportation of minerals has been predicted. 

The results indicate, value added of the mining sector, tonnage cargo of cargo road transported , cost of freight by train and cargo revenue are the most important variables and they have significant impact and effective on the demand for rail transportation of Golgohar minerals. The inelasticity of the demand for rail transportation of minerals in relation to freight costs by train was also confirmed in this study. Variables not only affect demand for rail transportation, but also a significant impact on the income of producers, industrialists, railroad and eventually to consumer prices. Because minerals as a factor in generating transportation costs has a high share in the cost price. 

Care should be taken to determine the choice of shipping method according to the time. Therefore, due to the lack of rail facilities and side lines in all areas of demand, at present, only the proposed solutions can be satisfied in the short term.

It is argued that application of the inverse of mill's ratio as a correction factor regression in Heckman’s two-step method leads to inconsistent estimates and the resulted elasticities are not reliable. To avoid inconsistency of sample selection bias, Shonkwiler & Yen (1999) introduce an alternative method. In this paper results of the two-stage Heckman method (1979) are compared with the estimated elasticities by Shonkwiler and Yen.  We use Iranian households' survey data to estimate demand elasticities for meat. Interestingly, the results of both methods are similar and there are no inconsistencies in the two-stage Heckman method. Both of the approaches show that, economic factors have greater impact on the quality of demand for meat than demographic factors. Also, estimated coefficient for all variables have the similar sign by the methods, but the magnitude of the resulted effects are larger for Shonkwiler and Yen estimators.

In consumption demand studies, we can consider that choice of quality is affected by consumption decisions (whether to consume or not). The term “quality” refers to any subjective factor that motivates consumers to pay for a good more than its substitutes. Any change in a consumption explanatory variable has two effects: 1) the probability of consuming the good and 2) considerations of quality. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of factors such as demographics and socio-economic factors on choice of quality in meat consumption including livestock and aggregated meat (livestock, poultry and aquatic). Furthermore, we estimate quality elasticities using cross-sectional survey data for year 2014 among Iranian rural and urban households. The paper applies Heckman two-step method to estimate unknown parameters of participation and consumption equation. Our findings show that the most important variable affecting the choice of meat quality for consumption is household income. In this study, the quality elasticity of income in meat consumption is positive in all samples and there are other variables (gender, age and education of household breadwinner) which have significant effect on quality choice in meat consumption.

This paper investigates the nonlinear demand for defense burden function and its income elasticity in Iran for the period of 1991 to 2015 using Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model. For this end, the Average defense burden in Middle Eastern countries is used as the international threats indicator (inverse security index) and transition variable. Moreover, considering one transition function with one threshold parameter, that represents a two-regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables. The results indicate that the threshold value is 8.28 percent and the estimated slope parameter is 1.88. In the first regime, the income elasticity of defense burden is negative and with a one percent increase in income, the defense burden is reduced by about 0.05%. In the second regime, the income elasticity of defense burden is positive and with a one percent increase in income, the defense burden increases by about 0.03%. Therefore, there is a U-inverse relationship between income and defense burden in Iran, according to the level of security. According to other results, the coefficients of the impact of non-defense expenditure, population, international threats and oil revenues in the first limiting regimen are negative, meaningless, positive and positive. But in the second limiting regime where the level of international threats is higher than the threshold, the severity of this effect (without changing the sign) increases.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on Iran life insurance demand in the period . We used ARDL Procedure to estimate the research model.The results show that the price of insurance and life expectancy in long-term has significantly positive effect on the demand for life insurance and financial development and inflation expectations in long-term has significant negative effect on the demand for life insurance.

The concepts of social costs and equilibrium between supply and demand curves are used to providing a new method for determining the toll in cordon pricing policy. At this point receiving toll from private cars which enter in cordon is equal to marginal cost of the car. Demand chart obtained by using information from personal interviews with car drivers willing to pay based on stated preference approach. Supply also is calculated according to social costs of traffic also, by using the results of the cars demand matrix assignment to the transportation network. By calculating the intersection point of the demand and the supply curves (marginal cost), toll level for an entering to the central area of Isfahan at peak hours is determined. At this toll level, more than 70 percent of privet car users will refuse using the private car and use other mods to travel to the city center.

Nowadays, advertising is one of the most  important tools for increasing demand and profit in planning of products and condification of marketing strategies. The main purpose of this study is investigating and prices on demands and profits of Iran's textile and garment industry using a panel model. therfor, annual data from 1995 to 2007 for the 12 four-digit code, is used in the sub-sectors of textile and garment industry.The results of estimation of Dorfman-Steiner model indicate a positive and meaninigful impact of advertising expenditures, prior period revenue and demand and negative impact of price index on the demand for textile and garment industry.The price of elasticity of demand and income indicates that the industry  is very necessary in consumption basket of Iranian's household. The results of estimation of Chamberlain profit model suggest a positive relationship between benefit and advertising expenditures.Thus, the increasing of advertising expenditure, causes the profitability progress with modest rate. This result is important due to planning and condifiying marketing strategies for active firms.

In recent years “Financial Conditions Index" (herein FCI) has been used as a key indicator of the monetary policy condition. Considering the importance of this index, the purpose of the present research is to reach a comprehensive index that includes all the monetary transmission mechanisms based on the Iranian economy. To this aim, a weighted average of the banking interest, real exchange rates , credits and price of other assets (namely the stock price index, and housing price index ), need to be calculated. The weighted average of the variables are obtained by estimating the, backward-looking aggregate supply and demand equations for Iran. In the next stage, in order to test the validity of the obtained index, and because of the importance of price stability for the central bank, the predictive power of the index from inflation in Iran was examined using Non-Nested Tests and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Seasonal data series are collected for the period of 1991-2012.The findings of this study show that the weight of housing price variable is higher than the other variables, whilst, the stock price index coefficient was not significant in any lag. Moreover, the results of second stage tests, indicate a good predicative power of the FCI index from the inflation in Iran.

Export growth hypothesis increased export can perform the role of “engine of economic growth” because it can increase employment, create profit, trigger greater productivity and lead to rise in accumulation of reserves allowing a country to balance their finances.Export earnings assume vital importance not only for developing, but also for developed countries. Developed countries mainly export capital and final goods, while the main part of export of developing countries consists of mining-industry goods especially natural resources.Wood and paper industry could be very important for economic development as non-oil export. Because of fraternity and value added aspect in these industries, it has especial effect on country economic. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of changes in the real exchange rate on Wood and Paper Industry Export and to suggest policy proposals which may be useful for policymakers in non-oil export promotion issues.Theoretical frame workThere is huge number of studies that investigate the impact of exchange rate on export. But according to our research objective we try mainly to focus on studies that investigate this relationship in case of oil dependent economies like Iran.For investigating relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Export different methods can be utilized like: The Elasticities Approach, The Absorption Approach and MonetaryApproach. The vector autoregression (VAR) is an econometric model used to capture the linear interdependencies among multiple time series. VAR models generalize the univariate autoregressive model (AR model) by allowing for more than one evolving variable. All variables in a VAR are treated symmetrically in a structural sense (although the estimated quantitative response coefficients will not in general be the same); each variable has an equation explaining its evolution based on its own lags and the lags of the other model variables. VAR modeling does not require as much knowledge about the forces influencing a variable as do structural models with simultaneous equations: The only prior knowledge required is a list of variables which can be hypothesized to affect each other intertemporally.This paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on wood industry export during 1977-2010 has been studied. For this purpose vector auto regressive (VAR) model has been used and by Johansson approach, supply and demand of export will be estimated, then by using of error correlation model (ECM) short term and long term relationship have been combined. Based on findings of present study can be concluded that appreciating real exchange rate has positive and significant effect on supply and demand of wood and paper industries. In addition, tariff rate of import has negative effect on export supply.Since promotion of non-oil export is one of the urgent issues of the strategic economic policy of Islamic Republic of Iran then findings of this study may be useful for policymakers.Conclusions& suggestions: Real Exchange Rate and Wood& Paper Industry Export are strongly connected. Although, based on findings, increasing real exchange rate has positive and significant effect on supply and demand of wood and paper industries, but worth of national money should be moderate in short range. In account of high rate of Competition in the world hiking the export price should be avoided.

Failure to meet the demand for e-banking services with the necessary infrastructure can cause many problems for a society and the process of economic activity in a society. Therefore، for this type of service forecasting the changes in demand is important to provide the infrastructure to meet the demand. The main purpose of this paper is forecasting the demand for e-banking services using two methods، artificial neural networks and SARIMA models، comparing two methods and volume of demand with infrastructures in Iran. This research sample consists of 88 observed transactions through 6 current channels of the banking network since Tir 1385 to Mehr 1392. Also by using these models، the demand is forecasted to the end of Aban 1393. The results indicate a continuing increasing trend and also show advantage of artificial neural networks to SARIMA model. Therefore، serious attention to infrastructure of electronic banking services is essential.

Policy makers analyse supply and demand to achieve optimum prices and quantity in different markets as construction market. In this study, affective factors on demand and supply of commercial applications in Samen province are recognized based on theories and by using interviews with experts that were selected through snowball sampling method, the factors are authenticated. Theoretical coding was used for qualitative analysis of interview results and accordingly, questionnaire prepared. After analyzing Steady of questionnaire, intensity and mechanism of influencing of these factors are determined, till achieve to the greatest impact on supply and demand business applications by changing the more affective variables. In order to achieve equilibrium and development of Samen province. The results show that, Infrastructure services variables have the largest direct effect on demand of commercial applications and variables based on the profitability of business units operating factors have the largest indirect effect and cost variables have the largest total effect on demand. But cost variable have the largest total and direct effect on supply and policy of trustee agencies have the largest indirect effect on supply.

In spite of nonhuman species، determining quantity of children among human beings is the result of a decision-making process. There is a set of factors that influences this decision in which income is the most important and ambiguous of them. Using an optimization model in which utility of parents depends the amount of consumed goods and number of their children، it is shown that increase income، ceteris paribus leads to increase in demand for child but the total effect could be negative. The evidence from Tehran suggests that the income effect is positive but statistically insignificant. Totally، the total effect of an increase in income is negative and statistically significant.

The aim of the article to optimize firstly the logistics of supply chain including manufacturing plants، warehouses، distributors and retailers by model-based predictive controller as centralized and secondly as decentralized under demand changes and thirdly the performance of which is compared. Model-based predictive control as a tool for advanced control consists of two parts: model identification at the time of sampling and optimization of the cost function. By online predictive control structure optimization on inputs in order to maintain safety inventory with the lowest possible operating cost is effectively feasible. Consequently، a measure of customer satisfaction is met. The considered model is an overhand differential model of the retailer to the manufacturer and with transmission delays. Given that the system state variables are not always available and it is uncertain system، a Kalman filter is used as observer. Finally، performance of methods is tested by simulations. Moreover، look ahead theory is examined in these simulations.

Storing the electrical energy in large scale is impossible. So, it is necessary to identify the factors affecting the electricity demand. Researchers have used different methods to forecast the future demand of electricity, among them intelligent methods and fuzzy based methods are more popular. Since ANFIS structure is based on researcher’s experience about phenomenon, the created structure may not have the best result. Therefore, we used PSO-ANFIS structure. In this paper long term electricity demand is forecasted until the year 2025 by hybrid PSO-ANFIS algorithm. The results confirm the high power of the Adaptive Neural based Fuzzy Inference System in forecasting the electricity demand. Results also indicate that the forecasted electricity demand will be 401 billion KWh in 2025. The prediction performance of the proposed technique is more accurate than the ARIMA model.

The purpose of this study is to discuss and show how a general equilibrium analysis can be used to decompose demand elasticity. We apply this framework into electricity market. To do so, we use a general equilibrium model, assuming Iran as a small and open economy. In this model, we separate the contributions from various mechanisms to the price sensitivity of aggregate electricity demand. The contribution of households and activities demand is separated in first step and then the contribution of activities are decomposed to three components: substitution effects, scale effects and re-allocation effects. Our results shows that 100% increase in electricity price leads to 8.78% decrease in electricity demand, out of which 0.32% is related to households and 8.46% is related to sectors. In activities, substitution effects with 5.9% have more important role with respect to other effects. Scale effects and re-allocation effects decline the electricity demand by 1.06% and 0.12% respectively. Also "wholesale and retail services" and "metal ores and other minerals" have highest response to electricity price changes which contribute 2.27% and 1.84% respectively, in total 5.63% substitution effects.

We interpret fluctuation in GDP and unemployment rate as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that don’t. We interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. This paper surveys the effects of demand and supply disturbances on variables GDP and unemployment in Iran economy. So with using Blanchard-Quah econometric technique, shocks will be divided into two sections: the supply shocks and demand shocks. Then, we survey the effect of these two shocks on GDP and unemployment in Iran with using Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) method, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Results report that supply shocks proportion in explaining the GDP and unemployment fluctuation are 45/5 and 30/87 and the demand shock proportion are 54/56 and 69/21.

In the cognitive sources of capitalist economics, there is no place for Revelation and facts which cannot be experimented. Materialism is a basic principle in its philosophical foundations. The science of Economics is responsible to explore natural laws. Sensuous experimental cognition and logical analyses are enough in order to achieve reality. In this school man is a material being and a consumer is a person who is selfish, materialistic and is after maximization of utility meaning devotion to pleasure (hedonism). In Islamic economics, although the nearest source of achieving cognition is the senses, in order to understand the path of achieving bliss man's cognitive tools are needful of Divine guidance.Death is nothing but a transfer from this world to an eternal resting place.This world is just a cultivation land for the next one. Man under Islamic training and upbringing is an individual who is dynamic, responsible,strong and entrusted with Divine bounties.Learning about the ways of inspiring and persuading the faithful towards performance of good actions shows that the Holy Quran takes "durable pleasure and pain" for granted. It can be said that pleasure is also used in short-term instances but bliss (saadat), however, is only used for stable or relatively stable pleasures. A Muslim consumer is after stable pleasures (saadat). Theory of consumption will only be Islamic if it is compatible with the fundamentals of Islamic istemology, worldview and anthropology, the selection criterion is eternal pleasure and pain and limited resources are efficiently allocated paying due regard to positive and negative values in Islamic teachings and the rights of other people.This article, using a descriptive-analytic method, wants to prove this opinion that: Considering Islamic fundamentals and principles, demand of a consumer must be focused on necessary goods, must be confined within two limits of 'enough for sustenance' (hudd-e-kifaf) and extravagance (esraf),and must be less elastic.

Values of western culture have combined with economics in different delicate methods. These values play an important role in theories.Three principles including: observation of values, efficient allocation of resources and brotherhood (friendship and understanding between people) can be concluded from Islamic solutions on demand.Although economic subjects have the potentials of accepting new methods but regarding the rules govern the behavior of an economical Muslim man, a little change can be made in the concepts related to the literature of capitalist economy to present the discussion.The principles of brotherhood, economy and avoidance of merrymaking (or efficient allocation of resources) make people tend to use basic necessities where they are limited and not more available,i.e.; people from different social classes, on low or high income, are inclined to buy particular goods and commodities.Stabilizing the conditions, the level below the curve of a Muslim demand graph is less than a non-Muslim one in regard to the level below the curve, but the level below the curve on a demand graph in Islamic market is more in regard to the highly – competitive market. If prices exceed the purchasing power of consumer in regard to the basics for living, the Islamic government or people on high income can pay for, through donations to reach to the utility level. In other word, the effects of income, in two levels of prices, based on the high amount of consuming (waste) and lowest amount of consuming (living necessities).

This paper aims to investigate the process of Iranian e-Retailers e-Pricing. Statistical tests such as one sample t-test and Friedman analysis of variance were used to test the hypotheses. The results confirm that long run profit and surveillance are among the top priorities of the Iranian e-Retailers. The analysis indicates that the demand in electronic market is increased because of occurring cross-selling and the long term sales. Moreover, the findings reveal that e-Advertising expenditures and overhead costs are decreased in e-Market. The results of the statistical tests also indicate that gathering competitive information is facilitated for e-Pricing. Freidman test shows that the priority of e-Pricing strategies is cost-oriented, value-oriented and competition oriented.