جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "demographic change" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Human capital is one of the most effective and important factors that affect economic growth. Efficient manpower makes it possible to increase production and added value, and ignoring this important factor can be one of the reasons for underdevelopment in some developing countries. Also, investing in human capital and increasing its share in the total investment of the country, causes better utilization of physical capital and is an important factor in the process of economic growth and development. Therefore, studying the effect of each of these factors on economic growth can help economists in appropriate policy-making. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effect of demographic change and human capital on economic growth in Iran to examine the relationship between demographic change, human capital and economic growth in Iran. The study period was (2019-2010) and ARDL technique was used to estimate the study model. According to the results of the long-term dynamic model, it was observed that there is a significant relationship between demographic change and human capital with economic growth. In other words, increasing population change through the dependence of young people and adults has a negative effect on economic growth, but population growth also has a positive effect on economic growth. However, the effect of population changes on economic growth with respect to the coefficients of population change variables reveals its negative effect on economic growth in Iran. It was also found that the life expectancy index of human capital indicators has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Iran during the study period. In other words, investing in the labor force and increasing their welfare and security in order to improve the life expectancy index, will lead to better economic growth.

This study examines the effects of demographic changes including decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy and retirement age on the financial sustainability of the pension fund in Iran using the overlapping generation model and the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach. The results of simulation and evaluation of impulse response functions and evaluation of correlation coefficients show that there is a positive correlation between the variables of fertility and life expectancy with the financial deficit of the pension fund. With a negative shock in the fertility, the pension fundchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s deficit reacts negatively and deviates in the negative direction from the long-term equilibrium level and the pension fundchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s financial stability improves. However, savings, capital stock and output react to this Shocks, negatively. On the other hand, based on the impulse response functions, with the occurrence of a positive shock in life expectancy, the fund deficit reacts positively and deviates from the long-run equilibrium level in a positive direction, and savings, capital stock and production also respond to this shock positively. Also, with a positive shock to working period or increase in retirement age, the fundchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s financial deficit reacts negatively and deviates from the long-term equilibrium in a negative direction, and savings, capital stock and output also respond positively to this shock. Due to the results, with the increase of positive shock during the working period or increasing the retirement age, the average long-run equilibrium level of the pension fund deficit decreases and financial stability of the pension fund improves. Based on the results, the implementation of the policy of increasing the length of service and increasing the retirement age is recommended as a useful tool for the improving financial sustainability of pension funds in Iran.

Many countries all over the world will see widespread demographic changes in the decades to come. The demographic change will affect the economy and the labor market of these countries. In this paper we employ a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to study the impacts of demographic change on the welfare, employment and activity level of economic sectors in Iran. The model includes seven economic sector and two types of labor-skilled and unskilled. We also considere the choice between leisure and work and labor mobility in the model. The model is calibrated based on the 2001 Micro consistent matrix. Results demonstrate that in the youth period, employment and activity level of sectors will increase. Furthermore, the increase in activity level will lead to an increase in income and welfare. When the population ages, on the other hand, welfare, employment and activity level of sectors will diminish.

Today, population growth is one of the most important issues facing the countries because it affects the patterns of sustainable economic growth. Population growth is a key element of semi-endogenous economic growth models. Semi-endogenous growth states that economic growth is correlated with the growth rate of effort in research and development. The common features of these models are decreasing returns of knowledge in the production of new knowledge and positive population growth.
The aim of this study is to investigate the long-run relationships between population growth on technological output (patents), focusing on eight developing Islamic countries group named D8, in order to analyze the range of population growth rates favorable to support higher technological output. In particular, the aim is to determine whether the relationship between population growth and technological output is an inverted-U shape. In this research, focusing on two critical variables -population growth and technological outputs- the non-linear model to investigate the relation between this two variables is used. This is important that it determines the optimal level in which population growth rates tend to be associated to higher technological outputs. The results show the existence of an inverted-U shaped curve between population growth rate and technological output. Sustainable population growth rate of about 2% is consistent with the increase in technological outputs. Also, population growth rates much different from optimal growth rate of population can reduce the returns of technological outputs to population growth.