جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « expected inflation » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

 high inflation rate is an important economic problem in developing countriesincluding Iran, which, despite its long history of analysis, is still under discussion and is one of the main concerns of politicians and economists. According to the available evidence, inflation has adverse effects on society and economists believe that the costs that inflation imposes on society can be much more serious than the costs of slowing the economic growth. Considering the negative effects of inflation, the effective factors of creating and intensifying inflation have been studied in different schools. In this regard, according to the theoretical issues, inflation has three main sources of 1) increasing demand, 2) cost pressure and 3) structural bottlenecks. One of the most important policies to reduce inflation is to increase the product's supply and growth. In this regard, economic complexity can lead to the formation of oversupply and ultimately reduce inflation in the economy through increasing the capacity of production and diversifying the complex products' production. According to the latest ranking of the Economic Complexity Index reported in 2018 by Harvard University for 133 countries, there is a significant difference between developed and developing countries. 

 The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of economic complexity on inflation in OIC member countries based on the inter-country approach during the period 1995-2018. The required information was obtained from the World Bank and the Atlas of World Economic Complexity. The geographical scope of this study is thirty selected member countries of the Islamic Cooperation Organization, which have been selected due to the statistical limitations of similar data and historical evidence. Specifying research modelAccording to the theoretical foundations and experimental studies, the model specified in this study was specified as follows:  INF_it=C+β_1*INF_(it-1)+β_2*(M2gr_it-GDPgr_it)+β_3*NAT_it+β_4*ECI_it+ε_i In this model i: country, t: time, C: the width of the origin and β: the coefficients of the explanatory variables (slope coefficients). (INF): Inflation Rate. (INF-1): Inflation of the previous period. (M2gr): growth of liquidity. (GDPgr): growth of gross domestic production. (NAT): abundance of the natural resources. (ECI): Index of economic complexity.The GMM model is selected to estimate this research. 

According to the results of this study, the impact of economic factors on inflation in selected countries was estimated. The coefficient of the main variable of the stipulated model, ie the ECI economic complexity index, is negative and statistically significant at the 5% level. Other explanatory variables of the model, which were significant at the 5% level and all had a positive effect on inflation, are expected inflation, difference between the growth of liquidity and the economic growth and abundance of natural resources. 

The results of the analysis of the model findings showed that the hypothesis of reducing inflation through economic complexity is established in selected Islamic countries. It was also found that with increasing expected inflation, the difference between the growth rate of liquidity and economic growth and natural wealth, inflation increases. Thus, the results of model estimation show that the estimated coefficients of all variables are signally compatible with theoretical foundations. Therefore it is suggested:Policymakers and economic decision-makers should consider research on the indicators of complexity and product space, And adopt the necessary policies and measures to pave the way for higher-tech technological products with the aim of diversifying the competitive products of Islamic countries. Of course, it is necessary to first identify the technological capabilities of countries in this direction.

From the start of the new round of UN sanctions against Iran to the Lausanne Declaration, certain the political developments occurred (e.g. changes in the government and adoption of an interactive approach to foreign policy). These developments have had their impacts on inflation expectations. Based on the experience and global studies,the market rate of exchange (US dollar), the stock price index and the consumer price index (CPI) are all calculated on a monthly basis and considered as the estimates of inflation expectations.
In this study, we extract the concession function of the economic planner in the context of a conflict economy and on the basis of conflict expectations of Drezner (1999 ), which is a theory of dynamic games. Then, we specify this function on the objective of decreasing the expected inflation. In this regard, three regression models were evaluated separately on the basis of the Autoregressive Integerated Moving Average with an explanationary variable (ARIMAX) and rolling regressions. The results show that inflation with a lag and liquidity have had positive effects on the inflation expectations.
Political developments, including changes in the government and negotiating strategies with different lags have been effective in the reduction of inflation expectations. However, due to the long negotiation process, there would have been unknown changes in inflation expectations.

Inflation rate in different countries can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon¡ depending on the circumstances of each society; however¡ if inflationary shocks lead to inflation uncertainty¡ this will impair the optimum allocation of resources and price system function¡ and will in turn impose macro-economic costs on the enterprises. Due to the impact of these costs and rational behavior of economic agents on determining the expected inflation¡ the inflation rate may also be increased. Therefore¡ this study has reviewed the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Iran with an emphasis on rational expectations during the period of 1990 Q1-2015 Q4. Using EGARCH model¡ inflation uncertainty modeling showed that positive and negative inflationary shocks play an asymmetric role in the formation of inflation uncertainty. Also¡ Granger causality test and impulse response functions showed that an unanticipated inflation increase can lead to inflation uncertainty. The variance analyses also indicated that about more than 76 % of changes in inflation uncertainty can be explained in the long run¡ using unanticipated inflation¡ and also more than 16% of changes in expected inflation explained using inflation uncertainly.
In this study¡ the ARCH family models were used for modeling the fluctuation¡ the Granger causality to examine the causality between inflation uncertainty and inflation (unanticipated and anticipated) ¡ and the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to analyze the revealed causes.
EGARCH model has some advantages over other asymmetric models such as threshold Arch (TGARGH) including 1) logarithmic transformations requires the positive conditional variance; 2) evaluation is not sensitive to outlier observations; 3) this model is not limited to parameters and is sufficient for stability of EGARCH process. In the present study¡ standard Granger causality test (1986) is used to determine if there is any relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. This test assumes that important data to predict each variable lies in the time series data related to it. In fact¡ Granger (1969) stated if the current value is predicted using past value ¡ in this case¡ is called the cause of. Granger causality test to investigate the hypothesis¡ «is not the Granger cause of» ¡ or vice versa¡ uses a vector autoregressive model (VAR).
After Granger causality test¡ through the impulse response functions and variance analysis in vector auto regression (VAR) ¡ better evidence of influence in the Granger causality has been obtained. In fact¡ based on the estimation of the VAR¡ also used byGranger causality test¡ the coefficients and the percentage of Explanatory model parameters is not as important as single-equation methods; therefore¡ the impulse response function (impulse response) and the variance analysis have been used in the analyses. Since the impulse response function measures the time path of impulse effect on the future status of a dynamic system¡ the effects of impulse can be seen in VAR patterns. The impulse response on variables assumes that the system is balanced¡ and the balance is in the coordinate system¡ so that all variables are equal to zero in equilibrium. The effect of the impulses once called a temporary variable¡ will return to its previous equilibrium value after several time periods; if this variable does not return to zero and is not settled in different balance amounts¡ it will be called a permanent impact. Variance analysis can measure the relative strength of Granger causality chain or exogenous degree of variables¡ regardless of the measured period¡ so the analysis of variance can be called causality test out of the sample period. This method can determine the role of imported shocks to different variables in explaining the anticipated error variance in short term and long term.
Results of Granger causality test showed Granger causality is not inflation uncertainty¡ and inflation uncertainty is neither unanticipated inflation Granger causality. On the other hand¡ unanticipated inflation is inflation uncertainty Granger causality¡ and inflation uncertainty is anticipated inflation Granger causality.
The results of this study showed that an unpredicted shock to the size of one standard deviation in inflation will increase inflation uncertainty as much as 0. 27158% in the first chapter¡ this increase reaches its peak in the second season (2. 85 511%) ¡ then the positive effects begin to decline¡ then turn to almost zero in Season XVI. The procedure of the effects of inflationary unanticipated shocks can be used to explain the changes of inflation uncertainty in Iran as much as 2. 82% in the first season¡ and more than 76 % in the long run. Also¡ an unforeseen shock to the size of one standard deviation in inflation will increase the expected inflation volatility from the second season¡ and this additive process will be positive for 20 years. The climax of this impact is in season 4 (0. 48354%). The effects of inflation uncertainty can display the changes of anticipated inflation as 3% in the second season¡ and more than 16 percent in the long term. Therefore¡ the results suggest that if inflation can (not) be predictable¡ then there will (not) be the rational expectations approach based on inflation uncertainty. Due to the rational behavior¡ inflation uncertainty lead to higher inflation rate.
Conclusions and recommendations: The results of this study show that isodiametric positive and negative inflation shocks are contributed to form the inflation uncertainty asymmetrically¡ and positive shocks spread more uncertainty. The results of Granger also show that Friedman hypothesis about inflation uncertainty caused by increasing inflation is not true for nonanticipated inflation in Iran¡ and the expected inflation has rejected this hypothesis. Also¡ Cukierman and Meltzer hypothesis about the causality result of inflation uncertainty has been confirmed in anticipated inflation and rejected in nonanticipated inflation.

Iran’s economy is recognizes as a high inflationary country (For near almost all years after Islamic revelation) which is suffered to external shocks such as external conflict interactions (for example war and sanctions) and oil price shocks. Therefore, analysis and estimation of money demand in Iran should consider above issues in order to have efficient money supply policy.
This paper, apply HSE index to estimate the effects of external conflict interactions. Hodrick-Prescott filter has been used to estimate expected inflation. The money demand function of modified Cagan’s is estimated during 1979 to 2013 by ARIMAX and VAR methods. The results show that, expected inflation by 3 lags, has negative effect on money demand but external conflict interactions by two lags and oil price has positive effects on the money demand.

Reputation of a monetary’s authority، is an agents believe on his to control of deviation between targeting inflation and observed inflation. On one hand، a Monterey’s authority، can throw agent’s trust to his polices، leading to lower inflation expectations and inflation. But on the other hand، government pressure on the monetary authority to do discretionary monetary policy (such as creation of money and loan، or government decision to deal with unemployment، or decreasing the real value of debts and compensate government budget deficits، mostly in a rescission situation) would lead to higher deviation between targeting inflation and observed inflation. In this survey، in order to test and analysis the reputation of the monetary’s authority، chisel-prone’ credibility and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) lin-log models of time series based on the model of Barro and Gorden (1983) have been used by using two tailed of t student، during the years of 1979 to 2009 (end of forth developing plan). The results show that monetary’s authority was not reputational during second، third and fourth developing plan. Also، oil price by one lag، real GDP and unemployment by 3 lags have positive effects and discretionary monetary policy (creation of money and loan) and previous lack of reputation by two lags have negative effects on the reputation of a monetary’s authority.