جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "z-score index" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

One of the basic requirements for sustainable growth and development is the existence of an efficient financial sector to finance production activities. In this regard, the present study has estimated the probability of bankruptcy of banks employing the Altman index and using evidence from the banking industry for 18 public and private banks in the period from 2016 to 2021. Using the panel data approach, the influencing factors in the probability of bankruptcy are also investigated. Estimates from the panel approach show that credit diversification is effective in reducing the probability of bankruptcy. Similar evidence shows that the probability of bankruptcy for private banks is equal to 68% and for public banks 70%. The calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index has also shown a value of 0.33 for Iran's private banks and 0.63 for state banks, so credits in private banks have a higher diversity than in state banks. According to the results of the research, more attention should be paid to diversifying credits in public and private banks, determining the optimal size of banks to take advantage of economies of scale, monitoring the central bank's compliance with Basel index standards and monitoring the maintenance of banks' cash balances for the unforeseen demand of the society.

Financial institutions, especially the banking system, play a key role in the economic system; on the one hand, they provide economic growth and development and on the other hand, they may lead to the conditions of disorder and collapse in an economic system. Therefore, the existence of an efficient and stable banking system to prevent or reduce the likelihood of financial and consequently economic crisis is critical. For this reason, Western governments try to affect our economy through financial sanctions. This increases the business risk and costs of the banking system and economic activists, disrupting all international businesses and financial transactions. sanctions as an external shock can potentially have destabilizing effects on the financial system, especially on the banking system and consequently the economy of a country (in terms of revenue and expenditure). In contrast, some economists believe that sanctions do not affect Iran's banking system. In this case, the inefficiency of Iran's banking system regarding international regulations, as well as high credit risk at the international level, is pseudo-sanctioned, causing the unwillingness of foreign banks to cooperate with Iran. Due to this disagreement, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of banking sanctions and their channels on the financial instability of Iran banks using the Z-score index.

To obtain the purposes of this research, a hypothesis has been formulated that bank sanctions have a significant negative effect on banks' financial stability. To test the hypothesis, the financial data relating to a sample of 18 Iranian banks are collected for the period 2007-2017. Dynamic panel data approach especially two-stage system-generalized method (SYS-GMM) is used. This can dynamically present the results with less error.Specifying research model The model is specified based on Kayaza et al. (2014) as follows: In this model i: Banks, t: time, α: intercept and b: the coefficients of the explanatory variables, banking stability index: (Z). Dummy Variable Sanctions: (SANC), Credit Risk: (CR), Liquidity Risk: (LR), Market Risk: (MR), Inefficiency: (INEFFI), Bank Size: (size), GDP per capita: (GDP), Inflation rate: (INF), current account (DCA).

Sanctions have a significant negative effect on the banking stability of Iran. In addition, inefficiency, credit risk, and liquidity have led to a decline in bank stability but the size of the bank and market risk have a significant positive effect on banking stability. Also, inflation and GDP have significant negative effects and the current account is significantly positively associated with banking stability.

The research hypothesis, that sanctions have a significant negative effect on the stability of Iranian banks, can not be rejected. It may be interpreted that banking sanctions lead to international invalidity and increase the credit risk, resulting in banking instability due to increasing financial costs through bypassing sanctions and finance at a higher cost. Therefore, the central bank is recommended to adopt policies to reinforce the banking system against sanctions, including the use of a SWIFT's alternative messenger system or new financial technologies, especially Blockchain and digital currencies with decentralized supervision.

Previous financial crises and researches on financial systems stability show that Risk leads to instability and crises. Debt market as an important part of financial markets in the world and especially in Iran whose financial system relies much on the banking system, has the more effective role in creating economic crises, shock, and instability. Therefore one of the important mission of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is regulating and providing effective provisional indexes for control and management of crises. Thus guidance of requirements for recognition of banks with important systemic risk is provided by BIS. Using this guidance for recognizing banks with important systematic risk in country level and other studies in this area, the effect of systematic risk on the stability of 24 Iranian banks for a 7 year period from 1388 to 1394 using the generalized method of moments (GMM) for estimating parameters has been examined. Results show that systematic risk has negative linear and statistically significant relationship with banking stability.

In this paper, the effect of government intervention in the banking sector (financial repression) on banks’ financial stability is investigated during 2001-2013. To measure the index of government intervention in the banking sector, three variables including real interest rate, credits directed by banks and government debt to banks are combined using principal component analysis. Furthermore, the z-score index is applied to measure the financial stability in the banks. Data are extracted from balance sheets and income statements of the banks. Results from a panel of 14 banks show that the intervention of government in the banking sector is of significantly negative effect on financial stability of these banks and therefore increases their financial vulnerability. Moreover, an increase in size of bank improves the financial stability, but higher debt-to-asset ratio increases the banks’ financial vulnerability.