جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تحلیل داده - ستانده » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

International trade is usually associated with competition. During this competition, successful producers have lower production costs. Reducing the cost of production requires the use of different ways. One of these ways is the better use of primary production factors such as labor force. Thus, this paper attempts to investigate the effect of changes in foreign trade along with other effective factors on changes in labor force usage in Iran.

 
There are several methods to study the quality of labor force usage. The labor force productivity is considered as a criterion that is used in many researches. To this end, this study investigates the effects of foreign trade on labor force productivity changes in different production sectors. The data required for this research are provided from the input-output tables of 2011 and 2016, the national accounts and the results of the population and housing census for the years 2011 and 2016. For this purpose, first, symmetric tables of the sample years have been made with the assumption of sector technology, using consumption and supply tables of these years. Then, in order to calculate productivity and compare them in the sample years, the dimensions of the created tables have been standardized. Finally, using the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) approach, the effects of changes in trade balance, along with export and import ratio to trade balance, export and import structure, self-sufficiency, production technology and employment on changes in labor force productivity are determined.
At the sectoral level, the value of the production of the industrial sector in 2016 compared to the corresponding value in 2011 (at the price of 2016) has decreased due to the recession prevailing in this sector. The value of products at fixed prices in trade and repair and mining sectors, including crude oil and natural gas, has decreased due to reasons such as sanctions and low economic growth in these periods. In contrast, the value of production shows an increase at a fixed price in the public affairs, defense and social security /real estate and real estate services/transportation and agriculture sectors.

The total value of production in 2016 compared to 2011 has increased nearly 2006.70 million Rials at the price of 2016. The number of employed people in the country has increased by 2,113,120 people during this period. Because of these changes, the productivity of the country's labor force has reached from 1038.12 million Rials in 2011 (at the price of 2016) to 1029.84 million Rials in 2016, which shows a decrease of 8.28 million Rials.
At the sectoral level, the value of the production of the industry sector in 2016 compared to the corresponding value in 2011 (at the price of 2016) has decreased due to the recession prevailing in this sector. The value of products at fixed prices in trade and repair/ and mining sectors, including crude oil and natural gas, has decreased in these years due to reasons such as sanctions and low economic growth. In contrast, the value of production shows an increase at a fixed price in the public affairs, defense and social security/real estate and real estate services/, transportation/ and agricultural sectors.  In view of employment, the agricultural sector has faced a decrease in employment during the study period. In contrast, the industrial/, and trade and repair/ sectors have faced an increase in employment. Because of these changes, the industry/, trade and repair/ sectors have faced a decrease in labor productivity. Whereas the agriculture sector/, transportation/, public affairs administration, defense and social security/ and the activities of real estate and real estate service companies/ have faced an increase in labor productivity.
From the point of view of foreign trade, the industry sector has seen the largest increase in exports, while the electricity sector has faced the largest decrease in exports. In terms of imports, the industry sector has experienced the largest increase, while the education sector has experienced the largest decrease. The correlation coefficient between the exports of the sectors and the productivity of their labor force has been positive. While the correlation coefficient of the different sectors with the productivity of their labor force has been negative. However, the value of these correlation coefficients shows a decrease in 2016 compared to 2011.

The results of research show that foreign trade has improved labor productivity in the country. In addition, the exports of sectors have relatively similar relationship with the productivity of their labor force, in contrast, the import of goods has an inverse relationship with the productivity of their producing sectors. However, this issue has received less attention in 2016 compared to 2011, which has led to changes in the structure of exports and imports to reduce labor force productivity.

The problem of water shortage has caused countries to pay attention to the water used in the production of products and their other advantages in the production of goods and services. This has to do with the water consumed in the production of imported or exported products. Although most of this water generally remains in the producer country, it is required in production processes. This paper seeks to calculate the amount of direct and indirect water consumed in the exported goods and service production in Iran. In addition, the amount of water saved on the imported products for intermediate and final uses is calculated.

An input-output model is developed to measure the direct and indirect virtual water that is required for exported and imported products. The latest survey based on the input-output table of Iran for the year 2016 is employed as the database of the research. The rest of the data are obtained from the statistical yearbook of the country for the year 2016.

The symmetrical input-output table of Iran for the year 2016 has been prepared for 89 activities. This table was the basis for the research calculations. According to the results, the total imported commodities of the country were over 2662.56 trillion Rials, whereas the total export of the country in 2016 was 3008.85 trillion Rials. Thus, the trade balance of the country was 366.29 trillion Rials. About half of the imported goods and services were consumed as intermediate demand, and the other half were final demand. The majority of the imports consisted of the products used for the production of machinery and equipment not classified elsewhere in the amount of 254.5 trillion, which was 9.6% of the country's total imports in the year 2016. In contrast, the extraction of crude oil and natural gas was in thefirst place with the value of 1280.05 trillion Rials, which constituted 42.54% of the country's exports in this year.In addition, according to the results, the virtual water export of the country in 2016 was 8514.59 million cubic meters, compared to the country's virtual water import of 15062.83 million cubic meters in the year. So, the country's trade balance of virtual water in this year was -6548.24 cubic meters, which leads the country to be a net importer of virtual water.It is notable that, in contrast to the positive trade balance, the balance of the virtual water trade was negative. To investigate this circumstance, one should note that the production of 353.4 thousand Rials worth of exported products needed one cubic meter of water. However, the country was exempted from one cubic meter of water for 176.8 thousand Rials worth of imported products. On the other hand, the country attempted to import products that need more water in contrast to export products that need less one. So, the imported products of the country were about two times more water-intensive than the exported ones. Based on the calculations, due to the high correlation between the direct water coefficient of the activities and their water multipliers, the correlation coefficient of these two indicators was 0.95. Meanwhile, the activity of agricultural and garden crops, with the highest direct coefficient of water intensity, had the highest multipliers of water intensity as well. Thus, despite the export not achieving the first rank, the import and trade balance ranked first by a long distance among 89 production activities in 2016.The correlation coefficient of the virtual water multipliers of the sectors with the value of their exports and imports were -0.05 and 0.12, respectively. Thus, in the sectors where the multipliers of water are higher, there was relatively less export, whereas the products of these sectors were relatively more imported. The lower multipliers indicate that other factors have also been involved to determine the amount of exports and imports.

According to the findings of the research, the water intensity of products was relatively considered in the foreign trade of Iran. So, the imported products need two times more virtual water compared to the exported ones. As a result, in contrast to the positive trade balance of the country, there was a negative virtual water balance. However, due to the attention paid to other factors in the foreign trade, the correlation coefficient between the virtual water multipliers of the sectors with the value of their exports and imports is small. In addition, some activities deal with water in nature. As a result, they have high water multipliers. According to this characteristic, along with the promotion of water efficiency in production processes, it is necessary to avoid exporting products with high water multipliers as well as importing these products.

This study investigates the impact of final demand change on primary energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth. For this purpose, the multi-factor energy input-output method proposed by Guevara and Domingos (2017) has been adopted, and an input-Output table for the year 2016 has been used. The results show that among energy products, electricity has the highest primary energy consumption coefficient. Although the rate of renewable energy consumption in this product is higher than other products, due to the small share of renewable energy consumption in primary energy consumption, electricity has the highest rate of CO2 emission. Also, the efficiency of primary energy conversion to secondary energy is 24% with the lowest efficiency among energy products. Among non-energy products, non-metallic mineral products and transportation services have the highest primary energy consumption coefficient and CO2 emission. The results of units’ emission production growth of the sectors related to non-energy products show that leather products had the least CO2 emissions per production growth unit. In contrast, transportation services had the highest emissions per production growth unit.

In 2019, Iran is ranked sixth among world countries and fifth among Asian countries (including Russia) in terms of CO2 emissions. Therefore, studying the CO2 emission elasticity of the production sectors of this country is significant and important for energy and environmental policymakers. What factors influence changes in CO2 emission elasticities? Which are the stimulants and which are the inhibators? The answers to these questions are useful in reducing and controlling CO2 emissions. In the present study, CO2 emission elasticities of production sectors are calculated, and then, with the aim of identifying CO2 emission elasticity stimuli, the changes in CO2 emission elasticities are broken down into different components. The methodology of this research is based on Input-Output analysis and decomposition analysis. The novelty of this paper is to determine and calculate the components of changes in CO2 emission elasticities using SAD. Guo et al. (2018) have presented a method for calculating CO2 emission elasticities based on the Input-Output analysis.

Aim of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting CO2 emission elasticities, CO2 emission demand elasticity and CO2 emission production elasticity. In the first step, the elasticities are calculated and in the second step, changes of elasticities are decomposed. In this study, we have used input-output tables published in 2001 and 2011 by the Statistics Center of Iran. Due to the differences in the sector classification of the input-output tables of 2001 and 2011, we match some production sectors and finally take into account the 65 unified sectors. In order to calculate the CO2 emission of each production sector, we first obtain the total consumption of each energy for each year from the Iranian energy balance sheet, and then we allocate each energy consumption to production sectors and single household sector, according to input-output tables and the share of production sectors and the share of the household sector.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Findings show that the "Electricity generation, transmission, and distribution" sector has the most elasticity. The "Ghosh inverse matrix" effect is a strong stimulus to the CO2 emission elasticity of the sectors. This result indicates that the change in the share of output i, which is sold to sector j as an intermediate input, is a strong stimulus to increase the elasticity of CO2 emissions. These changes can be due to increased economic activities and the inefficiency of production structure.

"Electricity generation, transmission and distribution" sector should be considered by energy and environmental policy makers due to having the highest amount and changes in CO2 emission elasticity than other sectors. Increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy consumption basket of production sectors, increasing energy efficiency (reducing energy intensity) by replacing new and advanced equipment with old and worn equipment and improving production structure can help reduce the CO2 elasticity and CO2 emission in Iran's production sectors. Finally, due to the high of CO2 emission elasticities in the "Electricity generation, transmission and distribution" sector, future research can focus on this area and suggest solutions to increase production efficiency and energy efficiency. Also, future research can focus on the production structure of production sectors and provide solutions to improve the production structure of Iran's production sectors.

Natural gas plays a key role in Iran’s economy and using its shadow price in allocating it to different sectors can lead to optimal use of this resource. This study uses a non-linear input-output model to estimate the shadow price of natural gas in different economic sectors in Iran. The study uses values of the input-output table constructed by the Statistics Center of Iran for the year 2011. Using the non-linear input-output model allows us to simultaneously specify the shadow price of gas in different productive activities. In addition, the model can specify different values for shadow prices of different units of gas consumed by the same activity.  The simultaneity of these two features distinguishes the present study from previous ones conducted in the country. According to our research, the shadow price of gas in productive activities is dependent on the change in outputs stemming from changes in natural gas consumption. However, the shadow price of gas is often neglected in  allocating natural gas to different activities. Except for the production, transmission, and distribution of electricity, the use of natural gas in other activities is profitable with an 11 to 98 percent increase in gas prices.

This paper investigates carbon mitigation policies and economic growth in Iran using the input-output analysis approach. The input-output table was first updated for 2015. Using the data in the Iranian Energy Balance Sheet and the Iranian Statistics of Industrial workshops, the CO2 consumption and its emission were calculated. We have then examined the policies for carbon reduction and economic growth in Iran. The results show that food products, base metals and residential buildings are ranked, respectively, as the first, second and third contributors in energy consumption increase as well as the increase in CO2 emission towards enhancing the rate of economic growth. The results also indicate that in the sectors of marine transport services, wholesale and retail services, and public services energy consumption should be reduced for the 10% increase in economic growth. It is concluded that alongside economic growth the fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will increase, hence necessitating the use of alternative substitutable energies in order to reduce the pollution.

One of the essential indices for measuring sustainable development is ecological footprint. This paper which focuses on concept of ecological footprint of fossil fuels, tries to answer two important questions. The first question is wether the pattern of export and import of energy content in Iran confirms its comparative advantage? The second question is how much is the ecological footprint of Iranian economic sectors in year 2011? To measure ecological footprint of fossil fuels, we employ two different databases in this article, first activity by activity symmetric I-O table calculated by Iranian Statistical Center for year 2011 and second, Hydrocarbon Balance Sheet of year 2011. Our main results are presented based on two scenarios. In the first scenario, production technology is identical between Iran and other countries, and in the second scenario production technology isn’t the same. Our results based on two scenarios show that in macro level Iranian economy has trade surplus in fossil fuels content. But in sectoral level, 23 and 18 economic sectors have trade deficit in energy content based on first and second scenarios respectively. Ecological footprint based on our first scenario is more than 191 million hectares and the deficit per person is 2.3 hectare. In the second scenario the ecological footprint is 184 million hectares and the deficit per person is 2.2 hectares. Our conclusion is that because of low level of energy productivity in Iran, the results of second scenario are more realistic.

Households, directly and indirectly, are responsible for emission of various air pollutants. Indirect emission by households is due to the consumption of goods and services which use fossil fuels in their production processes. The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in the structure of households’ consumption on the indirect emissions of four types of air pollutants including carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and methane using structural decomposition analysis in the input-output model during 2001-2011. In this study, the matrix of consumption of goods and services by households was divided into the following two components: the total volume of consumption and the structure of consumption. We have then investigated the effect of changes in the structure of consumption on pollutant emissions. The results show that the change in the structure of consumption has increased the all air pollutant emissions. The increased amounts of these pollutants as a result of changes in consumption structure is 78.08 million ton CO2, 319.28 thousand tons SO2, 296.1 thousand tons NOx and 481.2 thousand tons Methane.

Today, policy makers and economic planners are seeking to establish several goals simultaneously, such as making sustainable development with economic, social, environmental and energy goals which requires an analytical tool to assess the problem from different aspects. Combining input-output analysis with the goal programming, this article propose a model to analyze the effects of simultaneously achieving economic, energy, environmental and social goals (E3s) for the first time in Iran which can be used as a valuable basis for policy making and planning in economic and social activities. In this study, 2011’s input - output table was used and data concerning the quantities of carbon dioxide and energy usage were obtained from 2011’s hydrocarbon balance sheet. Also, employment data were obtained from Iran’s Statistics Center housing and population census in 2011. The goals are developed upon upstream documents model of the country and the results show that despite achieving economic objectives, simultaneously implementation of policies can lead to unbalanced growth of economic activity and energy, and consequently, environmental objectives are not achieved. So, in order to achieve the energy and environmental goals, fundamental changes must be take place in some sectors such as power.

In this paper, we combine the input-output approach with fuzzy clustering using the input-output tables of 2011 and 2006 in order to identify the sectoral weights of the Iranian economy. The outliers were separately clustered in order to eliminate their undesirable effects on clustering. The results show that key economic sectors in the manufacturing and mining (non-metallic minerals, basic metals, machinery and equipment n.e.c., distribution of gaseous fuels through mains, other mining, coke and refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels), in Iran are outliers, hence, need to be separately clustered. Moreover, the key sectors are "crude petroleum and natural gas" - "wholesale and retail, maintenance and repair of motorcycles and related parts and accessories, public administration, land transport and agriculture" for export promotion and job creation, respectively.

In investigating economic dimensions of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission and its environmental effects have taken on considerable importance in recent decades. Among all, households are considered one of the highest energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters. With respect to the lower level of carbon in natural gas, the use of this gas leads to less emission,compared to other energy conduits. This study investigates changes in emission of different kinds of pollutants resulting from energy and other consumptions of households in 2001 and 2012. To this end, an Input-Output analysis is employed. The results of the research demonstrate that direct and indirect consumption of different kinds of energy conduits in 2012 increased compared with 2001, whichin turn caused an increment in the emissions of different kinds ofpollutants originated from direct and indirect energy consumption of households in 2012 compared with 2001. However, increments in gas delivery have leads the energy consumed by households,as well as the energy used for different household goods and services,to gradually be replaced by cleaner types

Within input–output framework، there are two kinds of economic linkages between sectors. The demand relationship is referred to as backward linkage and the supply relationship is referred to as forward linkage. The analysis of the strengths of backward and forward linkages allows us to identify the most important sectors in the economy. Obviously، in an open economy، imported products may also be used in the production process. Hence، when increasing production it will also generate additional imports to support it. That kind of import is called an economic leakage in the sense that it represents a leakage to the multiplier effect. For such assessment in Iran، the distinction between imported and domestically supplied inputs، which has been disregarded so far in empirical analysis، is crucial. In This paper، the distinction between imported and domestically produced inputs is taken into account in such a framework، besides an accurate measurement of domestic linkages; one can add a new dimension to the analysis. However، in this paper using the 1380 input-output tables of Iran''s linkage and leakage sectors are analyzed.