جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « شاخص بازار سهام » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of coordinating of monetary and fiscal policies in the co-operative game space on macroeconomic components in which the government acts as a leader and central bank as a follower and its effect on macroeconomic variables including inflation. Unemployment, economic growth, as well as the Tehran Stock Exchange market index have been studied and compared with the situation in which these two institutions operate in a non-cooperative manner. This article uses SVAR method to study and test the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies in the period 1979 to 2016. The results show that the dominance of the financial sector as a leader over the monetary sector as a follower has led to higher inflation and lower unemployment rates as policies are implemented, indicating the dominance of the financial sector as well as the government's political goals. The central bank's economic goals have led to an increase in the GDP gap during the study period.

The results show that if the stock index be in the low regime, the positive shock of oil revenues, liquidity, inflation, exchange rate and government debt to the banking network will lead to an increase in the stock index and the shock of economic growth will lead to a decrease in the stock index over time. when the stock index be in the high regime, the shock of the research variables has different behavior in different time periods. Given the high share of oil revenues in the countrychr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s budget and also its high share in explaining changes in the stock index, the dependence of the countrychr economy on oil revenues should be reduced as much as possible, while   external shocks such as changes in oil revenues and oil sanctions happened, liquidity, inflation, exchange rate and government debt to the banking network and ultimately the countrychr  economic growth are not so affected that the outcome can be effective in shaping the real behavior of the stock market and if stock market index increased for external shocks, high liquidity that created in the stock market do not lead to harmful economic effects.

In this research, the impact of social capital through influencing the efficiency of government expenditure is investigated using three-stage least-squares model in Iran during 2005: Q1 to 2018: Q2. The effects of exchange rate, stock market index and oil revenues on non-performing loans of public and private sectors are also examined. Results suggest that given the increased efficiency of government expenditure, social capital has a significant negative impact on non-performing loans of public and private sectors. In addition, exchange rate has a significant negative impact on banking system’s receivables from public sector and a significant negative impact on banks’ receivables from private sector. Stock market index has no significant impact on non-performing loans of both public and private sector, since stock market is not liquid enough and has low share in financing businesses. Economic growth has also no significant impact on non-performing loans of both sectors, which can be explained by the impact of improvement in business environment and individuals’ purchasing power on their ability to repay their loans. Thus, by stabilizing economy (controlling the fluctuations of exchange-rate, stock market and so forth) and by improving social capital, it is expected that efficiency of government expenditure is increased and non-performing loans of both sectors is decreased.

This study intended to examine the correlation between the stock market return and the oil price return within a multivariate GARCH model. To this end, the correlation of these two variables with the spillover rate, conditional mean, oil price fluctuations, and the stock market indexes of 10 OPEC members, i.e. Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Ecuador, were examined in the form of monthly times series for the 2014–2019 time span. The results showed that there is a positive correlation between the oil price volatility and the stock market return in OPEC member countries. In addition, there is a greater correlation between the oil price fluctuations and the stock return in countries where oil revenues make a bigger contribution to GDP. It was also concluded that the oil price volatility spreads to that of the stock returns.