جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « پویایی شناسی سیستمی » در نشریات گروه « مدیریت »

Rapid technological changes, increasing global risks, globalization and privatization expectations are among the environmental features that organizations have always faced and to achieve success in this environment, agile features are the basis for creating a competitive advantage for it. They happen. Agile supply chain has always been used as a critical strategy for organizations to face the instabilities in dynamic business environments. In this research, focusing on the agility of the supply chain of the country's health industry and investigating the effect of its intelligentization, an attempt was made to create a dynamic model in the first step in order to simulate the behavior of the supply chain by using the variables extracted from the research literature related to the agile supply chain and experts' opinions. The health industry of the country should be created and then based on this, by identifying the existing gaps between the current situation and the desired situation, these gaps should be reduced as much as possible by presenting scenarios. System dynamics method and Vensim DSS software are used for modeling. The results of this research show that the greatest impact in the process of reducing the identified gaps in this direction can be created in the country's health industry by focusing on supply chain automation and intelligent communication.

The world's electricity industry has faced numerous challenges, such as rising electricity demand and greenhouse emissions, declining fossil fuel reserves, economic conditions, and rising costs. Such challenges have forced managers to supply energy by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. The technology advancements and electronic equipment in the consumption sector have increased the need for electricity. Hence, electricity generation has become more significant due to the type of power plant. This study aims to prioritize electricity generation by allocating it to the consumption sector, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Design/methodology/approach:

 In this study, a mathematical has been proposed to determine the amount of electricity production from power plants with different economic, technical, and environmental conditions. Then, the optimal electricity allocated to various sectors (as consumers), such as household, commercial, transportation, industry, and agriculture has been examined. By simulating and proposing a linear programming model, regarding the energy data in 2017, 10 types of the power plant and energy balance have been taken into consideration. Based on a mathematical model and by considering three decision-making variables, while observing the limitations and requirements of the power plant, the amount of electricity generation has been determined. Then, the energy system in the consumption sector has been simulated by causal diagrams using the system dynamics approach.

The lack of fossil fuels and environmental pollution associated with energy development are challenging issues. Fossil fuel production and consumption contribute to global warming and acid rain. Therefore, one solution to protect the environment from the proliferation of energy waste and its consumption is the effective planning of energy systems. Findings indicated the role of proper planning and allocation for energy in the consumption sector, in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The lack of comprehensive and accurate data on the application of renewable technologies to generate electricity in Iran is one of the main limitations of the empirical study. One of the limitations of the proposed model is the consideration of renewable and non-renewable sources, simultaneously. Electricity from renewable fuel has also been less noticed.

Practical implications:

 Based on the findings it is concluded that the mathematical model with more comprehensive indicators and the system dynamics model can play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the following strategies can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationwide:- The percentage of electricity generation from renewable energy sources should be increased and the use of fossil resources to generate electricity should be reduced, which is evident from the application of the mathematical function of the model.- Electricity generation from power plants based on the specified priority will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.- According to the calculation of the environmental index, issuing construction permissions for coal and gas power plants should be prevented.- The needs of the domestic and commercial sectors must be met through renewable energy sources.

Originality/value:

 In this study, mathematical planning and dynamic system were used to study technical, economic, and environmental conditions in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the existence of objective functions in the mathematical model and the optimal results obtained from the production of 10 hypothetical power plants in this study, it is implied that the optimal production in solar, wind, combined cycle, heater, water, and natural gas centers has potentials for capacity expansion.

One of the mysteries that has always been focused on in international economic studies is the ability to predict exchange rates. The existing perception in the past decades has always been based on the fact that economic models have been the most basic tools for predicting this matter, while the predictions made on this basis have always faced many gaps. Hence, the prediction of exchange rate fluctuations in Iran has always been a fundamental challenge for investors and economic activists, and also in the studies conducted in this direction, less has been focused on the field of behavioral finance and its combination with rational approaches to solve this issue. Therefore, in the current research, an attempt has been made to provide a model with greater explanatory power by using the integrated approach of behavioral finance and classical financial approaches to realize this. In this regard, a model based on the systemic dynamics approach has been presented, considering the impact of psychological, political and economic variables. The results obtained from the research indicate that on average, each of the four situations of widespread prosperity, boom of behavioral trends, stagnation of behavioral trends and widespread recession can be 5.37%, 4.31%, 3% and 2.4% respectively. Reduce the percentage of behavioral distortions in the currency market.

Strategic planning increases the probability of reaching goals with the optimal use of organization resources by determine the organization strategic goals, identify and select the suitable strategies to achieve selected goals and develop the organization strategic capability.  In this study not only identify the various models in strategic planning systems, but also presented the features of a suitable model for improve strategic plan in automotive industry with using a system dynamics method based on the subject-oriented strategic planning approach.  Using these models in a manufacturing organization like automotive industry will lead to achieve the competitive or relative advantage. The suitable strategic planning model for the automotive industry is a model that has been designed due to the economic, political and cultural conditions of the country and its significant features, then provide appropriate techniques for its codification and implementation. Applying the suitable strategic planning model helps the automotive executives to determine the right strategic goals and choose the right strategies and tactics to reach them. The presented model in this regard has been simulated with using Vensim DSS software and the results of this study proved that if the automotive industry of the country continues its ways due to the existing strategies, only it will be able to cover 40% of customer demand until the year of 1400. In this research, three scenarios have been presented to improve the condition of this industry. Based on the presented scenarios, it can be stated that if the productivity just improves 3% during the period under review, we will see the supply level will grow 1.13% compared to the baseline. The results of the two other scenarios that base on the 8% growth rate of return on capital and combine this with growth in return on equity, confirm that if these scenarios are implemented, respectively they will see the supply level in this industry will improve about 1.67% and 5/13%. Among the suggestions that improve the supply level in this industry could be focusing on value added and providing professional training for employees to improve productivity in this area and also focus on more profitable investment opportunities during the under review period and moving towards investing in productive assets.

Housing is considered to be the main asset in the portfolio of households in the Iranian economy. The changes in housing prices, will change the wealth of citizens over the time and consequently will change the utility of consumption. Given the different composition of assets for different individuals, the change in housing prices will cause different people's wealth to change relative to each other. Therefore, the control of housing prices at metropolises is the most important challenge, the Iran’s Government is facing. The study aims to investigate the causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and demographic factors to predict the average possible price per square meter of housing in ten formal metropolises of the country until 2022 and by presenting scenarios, to provide a context for resolving the mentioned challenge. We used the Vensim DSS software to simulate the research model and system dynamic approach to derive the results.  Findings indicate that a 10% increase in oil prices and exchange rates, taking into account the same rate of change in migration, the growth of housing prices in Iran will reach to an average of 26.43 and 5.6 percent respectively.

This paper seeks to model exogenous variables affecting Non-Metallic Mineral Industry business environment conducted using the Auto Regression Distributed Lags (ARDL) and System Dynamics method. For this purpose, considering variables affecting the mentoioned industry and business, required data collected for a 7 year period. Which used for ARDL method. ARDL estimated equations used in for system dynamic modeling and the behavior of these variables simulated for the horizon of year 1400. Results showed that behavior of the endogenous variables are highly influenced by environmental variables while causing immediate and short term effects. Hence result of impact of policies and important economic variables on business environment and industrial enterprises should not be merely based on the analysis of short time period but it should reviewed during long time period breaks.

Appraisal and calculate productivity of the industrial groups with applying of system dynamics approach in 1404 horizon. In this paper، industrial productivity was calculated in 1404 horizon with usage of system dynamics model. For this purpose، with regard to behavior of the effective variables and data of 1380 to 1388 years، the productivity model was designed and simulated. The result showed industrial productivity from 1380 to 1388 years always decreasing and this trend because increasing input production، will be continuing from 1389 to 1396 years، but from 1396 to 1404 horizon this trend will be increased. It should be noted that the productivity of the manufacturing process، labor productivity is lower fluctuation from than capital and energy. With regard to role of industrial productivity in value added، the appraisal of policy changes showed that increase of 1% annual productivity rate in industrial sector in 1404 with ratio to bas year، lead to increasing 3. 5%. value added