جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "رفتار سفته بازی" در نشریات گروه "مالی"

The main goal of the current research is to provide a model for measuring the stock price bubble with a behavioral approach. The present research method is a descriptive survey. The statistical population consists of two groups, in order to determine the factors related to the model, the first group consists of 10 capital market experts, and the second group consists of active companies admitted to the stock exchange, which were used for the model test. ANP has been used to prioritize the identified behavioral factors. The calculations performed to determine the priority of the main criteria show that the heterogeneity of investors with a normal weight of 0.128 has the highest priority. Speculative behavior, mass behavior and mental accounting are in the second to fourth place, respectively. Also, the results of the second part show that considering that the statistical population of the research consists of all the companies active in the stock market between 2012 and 2019, 143 companies were selected as a sample based on systematic elimination. Eviews software and logistic regression were used to test the hypotheses. The identified behavioral factors include speculative behavior, behavioral volatility, investor heterogeneity and market expectations. The results show that behavioral instability, heterogeneity, market expectations, as well as speculative behavior have a positive effect on the occurrence of stock price bubbles; Therefore, it can be stated that behavioral factors can have a positive effect on the formation of the stock price bubble; Therefore, the identified pattern has the necessary efficiency from the behavioral point of view.

Behavioral bubble models generally assume that real investors,as uninformed and irrational individuals, follow the trend and cause bubbles to form,while legal investors,as informed,adopt a reverse behavioral strategy. They go against the trend. Therefore,the main purpose of this study was to prioritize the factors of measuring the stock price bubble with a behavioral approach. The method of the present study is descriptive survey and the statistical population consists of 10 capital market experts. ANP was used to prioritize the identified behavioral factors. The threshold value must be calculated to map the network relationships. In this study,a threshold value of0.059 was obtained.to normalize the preferences of each criterion,the sum of the values of that criterion must be divided by the sum of all preferences. Because the values are fuzzy,the fuzzy sum of each row is multiplied by the inverse of the sum. The inverse sum must be calculated.Each of the obtained values of fuzzy and normalized weight corresponds to the main criteria.In the final step of de-fuzzing, the values obtained and the crisp number are calculated.The incompatibility rate of the comparisons is0.026 ,which is less than0.1 ,and therefore the comparisons can be trusted.Calculations performed to determine the priority of the main criteria showed that heterogeneity of investors with a normal weight of0.128 has the highest priority.Speculative behavior with a normal weight of0.107 is in the second priority.Mass behavior with a normal weight of 0.1067 Is in the third priority and mental accounting with a normal weight of0.092 is in the last priority.