جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "شبکه عصبی مصنوعی" در نشریات گروه "مالی"

In the era when companies are facing many challenges to survive in competitive markets, it is important to identify the factors affecting financial crises. One of the ways to help investors and companies is to provide models to predict financial distress. The purpose of this research is to investigate the ability of rough set theory and compare it with artificial and fuzzy neural networks to predict the financial distress of companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, 329 distressed companies from non-distressed corporations were selected during the period of 2006 to 2020. The neural networks investigated in this research are: Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network, Radial Basis Function (RBF) network, and Adaptive Fuzzy Inference Network (ANFIS) as well as the software used to create the ROSETTA rough set and the software The tool used to design artificial and fuzzy neural networks is MATLAB software. The results obtained in this research show the high efficiency of the rough sets model with 98/7 percent accuracy for predicting financial distress.

Today, profit rates and the possibility of managing and manipulating the profits are clear to all, and researchers have always sought solutions to remove the uncertainties facing investors and stakeholders when making their financial decisions. To clarify users' decision path of financial data users, Beneish (1999) has developed a profit-management predicting model that has yielded different results in different societies. Thus, this article aims to optimize and localize Beneish’s model by adding the Tunneling variable to Beneish’s variable and using a modern neural network and particle swarm algorithms. The statistical research population consisted of 196 companies listed at the Tehran Stocks Exchange from 2014 to 2019. The research method was a descriptive-library method in which the variables are interrelated through the causal-correlational method. From an objective point of view, it is an Ex-Post Facto research design. To analyze the data, the regression method and artificial neural and the PSO algorithms were used. The model analysis results suggested that all financial ratios had significant effects on Beneish’s profit management, as the Tunneling phenomenon and the financial leverage had the highest and lowest effects on predicting Beneish’s profit management, respectively.

Due to the rapid advancement of technology and computer technologies, a more accurate model of this phenomenon can be drawn based on previous experiences and used in the form of a decision support system. Relying on the generalizability of artificial neural network models, this approach has been used to model the dynamics of the financial crisis phenomenon. Variables of economic status, GDP, export value index, import value index, time position and geographical location of each country during the financial crisis as inputs of the artificial neural network model and the optimal combination of policies to deal with the financial crisis as Model output is defined. In order to show the capability of the proposed model, how to design and implement the proposed system in the event of a Covid-19 virus outbreak crisis in Iran was explored. The results indicate that using the proposed model as a support for policymakers and decision-makers in the field of financial management can help solve semi-structured problems and improve decision-making efficiency and pay more attention to its effectiveness. According to the results of the present study, the adoption of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and the provision of support packages as basic solutions to reduce the effects of the financial crisis caused by the corona epidemic in Iran is recommended.

Financial analysts and other users need relevant and reliable information to predict corporate bankruptcy, which should be distributed symmetrically to all users. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to compare the prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) systems based on the Multilayer Perceptron Approach and Falmer Binary-Logistics Model in order to predict bankruptcy. To test the hypotheses, the combined data of 172 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period 2007-2016 were used. The results of the analysis of the research data show that the ANN system can identify of the factors affecting on bankruptcy of Iranian companies in the year before bankruptcy by Precision equal 98%. Findings from the binary-logistic model showed that the forecasting model designed based on the Falmer regression method is able to predict with 82% accuracy the bankruptcy of the sample companies. Therefore, the use of artificial neural networks can more powerfully and accurately predict bankruptcy than regression models.

The purpose of this study is to optimize the Bayesian profit management model with tunneling phenomenon and cumulative particle motion optimization algorithm. The statistical population of the study included companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the number of companies under study, including 196 companies listed during the years 2015 to 2020. The research method is descriptive-correlational and in terms of causal-correlational variables and in terms of purpose and event, it is post-event. In order to analyze the data, regression and artificial neural network and cumulative particle motion optimization algorithm were used. The results of the model analysis showed that all financial ratios had a significant effect on the earnings management prediction of insight and the greatest impact on the prediction of earnings management was on the INE tunneling phenomenon and the least on financial leverage. The results of the estimation of the designed neural networks show that the use of cumulative particle optimization algorithm to predict the Profit management for companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange is acceptable.

The concept of financial sustainability has been in the economic literature for nearly two decades. In the theoretical financial literature, firm financial sustainability can be described as a financial system consisting of financial intermediaries, markets, and market infrastructures that are capable of withstanding risk shocks and resolving financial imbalances. Therefore, according to the above argument, the purpose of the present study is to present a proposed model for measuring the financial sustainability of the company by using Econophysics and artificial neural network using a sample of 132 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2015-2019. The results of the first hypothesis show that the prediction of financial sustainability based on the Econophysics method can provide better results. Also, based on the result of the second hypothesis, the Bayesian method can predict better financial sustainability. Finally, by comparing the Econophysics and Bayesian approaches to predicting financial sustainability of the firm, it can be concluded that the prediction of financial sustainability based on the economophysical method yields better results than the Bayesian method.

In This Study We Compare the Efficiency of Both Artificial Neural Network Prediction Methods (ANN) and Traditional Method of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) in Predicting Stock Prices in Iranian Stock Market. For This Purpose, Four Pharmaceutical Companies, Alborz Drug, Iran Drug, Pars Drug, and Jam Drug Were Selected and ARIMA Model and Artificial Neural Network Model Were Estimated For All Four Companies. In Order to Estimate Artificial Neural Network Model, Stock Price Variable as Dependent Variable and Stock Trading Volume, Drug Industry Index, OPEC Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Gold Price are Considered as Independent Variables. MSE, RMSE, MAD, R2 and MAPE Criteria Were Used to Compare Two Models. In Order to Estimate the Stock Price Forecast Regression Model, Use of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Regression Is Used and Estimation of the Coefficients of the Model is Performed Using the EVIEWS Statistical Software. An Suitable ANN Model Was Created For Predicting Stock Prices Using MATLAB Software. The Results of the Research Showed That the Research Hypothesis is Correct and the Artificial Neural Network Model (ANN) Has a Better Predictor of Stock Price in the Iranian Stock Market Than the ARIMA Method.

One of the most important issues in the field of financial management is how the investors distinguish between favorable investment opportunities and undesirable ones. One of the ways to help investors is to provide financial distress prediction models. According to the various studies have been made to develop these type of models, in this study the combination of artificial neural networks (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) techniques based on Zimensky prediction ratios is used for modeling financial distress. The research statistical population includes public companies in Tehran stock exchange which admitted between October 2013 to October 2015 and among them 66 distressed and 150 going concern companies were selected as the research sample using screening method. The results indicate that the power of both artificial neural network and genetic algorithm models in financial distress prediction are equal (95 percent), however, the prediction error of neural network is relatively low compared to genetic algorithm.

One of the most important problems in capital market is allocating financial resources in an optimal fashion. In an effective capital market, from an operational point of view, the capital is allocated for the best investment option. Therefore, in order to establish more output, making use of appropriate management tools is a step toward more effective market management of transactions. Regarding backgrounds of applying Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic in stocks investment and financial prediction, applying them in selecting an appropriate portfolio can lead to desired results for investors. The major goal of the current research is to achieve an optimal investment portfolio in capital market by applying Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic. Accompanied by Markowitz Model, models were used which were created through Artificial Neural Network. In order to establish investment portfolio, some of those companies were selected which were active in Tehran stock exchange, and which have had positive efficiency from the year 1386 to 1395. In order to evaluate the suggested portfolios in different conditions, the output of different portfolios based on the monthly and yearly output of the member companies were compared and optimization of suggested portfolios using genetic algorithm were carried out. The study shows that using the Fuzzy models versus mentioned models would provide higher output for the investors.

Forecasting financial markets is an important issue in finance area and research studies. Importance of forecasting on one hand and its complexity, on the other hand, researchers have done much work in this area and proposed many methods. In this research, we propose a hybrid model include wavelet transform, ARMA-EGARCH and NN for day-ahead forecasting of stock market price in different markets. At first WT is used to decompose and reconstruct time series into detailed and approximated parts. And then we used ARMA-EGARCH and NN models respectively for forecasting details and approximate series. In this model we used technical index by approximate part to the improvement of our NN model. Finally, we combine prediction of each model together. For validation, proposed model compare with ANN, ARIMA-GARCH and ARIMA-ANN models for forecasting stocks price in UA and Iran markets. Our results indicate that proposed model has better performance than others model in both markets.

The Crash, which indicates how much specific stock prices are at risk of collapse. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to model the risk of falling stock price of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange using a multivariate optimization algorithm for particle cumulative movement and comparing results with logistic regression. For this purpose, a hypothesis was developed for the study of this issue and the data for 106 members of the Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 2010-2010 were analyzed. First, 14 independent variables were introduced as inputs of the combined genetic algorithm and artificial neural network, which was considered as a feature selection method, and 7 optimal variables were selected. Then, using particle cumulative algorithm and logistic regression, predicted The risk of falling stock prices. The stock price collapse criterion has been used to calculate the risk of falling stock prices. The research findings show that the particle agglomeration algorithm is more likely than traditional logistic regression to predict the risk of falling stock prices. These findings underscore the need for managers to use meta-metric methods for forecasting.

The goal of the current study is performance evaluation of Iranian OTCs companies by using stochastic dominance and optimizing them by employing Artificial Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization hybrid model .To fulfill this objective, we used daily and weekly return of under investigation 36 companies of OTC During the period beginningfrom March 21, 2014 until March 20, 2015 in which the application of stochas tic dominance criteria for nonparametric orientation and proven performance of the hybrid model is particular interest. The research results indicated the first-order, second-order, and third-order dominances in the study companies. The portfolios were based on the shares of companies ranked with respect to the stochastic dominance criterion. Considering the minimum and maximum numbers of shares to be 2 and 10 for each portfolio, an eight-share portfolio was selected as the optimal portfolio with the combination of the activation function TPT. Compared with the index of Iran OTC during the research period, the selected portfolio indicated a significantly higher performance.

In this paper a stock trading system based on the combination of six technical indicators is designed. The indicators are combined using an artificial neural network and their parameters are optimized using convex combination-based optics-inspired optimization (COIO) algorithm. In the proposed model the technical indicators’ optimized parameters are obtained using both COIO and genetic algorithms with the aim of maximization of modified Sharpe ratio. The presented paper uses stock intra-day prices as input data and considers the transaction costs. The designed strategy is compared against several other approaches including: using the indicators’ default parameters, buy and hold strategy and optimization using genetic algorithm, for both daily and intra-day prices and due to a greater modified Sharpe ratio for the proposed model, its superiority is shown in all cases. Moreover, in a comparison based on end- of- period returns, it is shown that without considering the transaction costs the results of the intra-day data beats the results of the daily data while no superiority is observed when considering the transaction costs. So reducing the transaction costs is recommended to motivate traders to trade on an intra-day basis.

The stock price crash risk is an indicator for measuring risk asymmetry and is of great importance in analyzing portfolios and pricing asset holdings. Considering the importance of the risk of collapse, several studies have examined the effective factors on it, all of which use traditional methods of forecasting, while in recent years, new methods of hypermetricity have been widely used in other financial issues. It has been used and has had better results. The purpose of this research is to model the stock price crash risk of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange using the genetic algorithm and compare the results with logistic regression. For this purpose, a hypothesis was developed for the study of this issue and the data of 107 Tehran Stock Exchange listed companies for the period of 2010-2010 were analyzed. First, 14 independent variables were introduced as inputs of the combined genetic algorithm and artificial neural network, which was considered as a feature selection method, and 7 optimal variables were selected. Then, using genetic algorithm and logistic regression, predicted risk Stock price collapse. The risk of falling stock prices has been used to measure the risk period. The results of this study indicate that a genetic algorithm based model is more capable of predicting the stock price crash risk than logistic regression. Therefore, the research hypothesis is confirmed.

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are mathematical models inspired by human’s neural and brain system. This research deals with the next day price forecasting in Tehran’s stock market by MLP, and attempts, by various methods, to reduce the prediction error. High pricing of stocks may lead to low demand for negotiable stocks and the failure of privatization. Raising various doubts in the negotiation of public properties, low pricing results in the long-term failure of negotiation policies. With respect to the importance of this issue, the newness of stock market and the lack of financing institutes and investment banks in Iran, prediction of stock price trend and its ascending and descending order can influence the decisions and strategies of managers. Various variables affect stock prices among which the role of economic indices, such as exchange rate / oil price and gold price is significant.
The purpose of the present study is to predict the final prices of stocks by utilizing daily data through neural networks. The results indicate that the ANN model has low error and high explanatory and thus considerable forecasting power.

The purpose of this research is to detect manipulation of stock prices in Tehran Stock Exchange that it has been done through Hybrid Genetic Algorithm-artificial neural network (ANN-GA) model and the Simplified Quadratic Discriminant Function (SQDF) Model. In this study, the variables of price, trading volume and free float stock to match the results of the model and the actual data of price manipulation is used. In the Hybrid Model of Genetic Algorithm-Artificial Neural Networks (ANN-GA), at first data of 316 stock companies from 2009/03/21 to 2013/03/20 on a daily basis, including 966 days were put into the GA model, then; weight of each variable were derived from GA. Next, using these weights, Perceptron neural network was designed, implemented and its efficiency was approved. Then, SQDF model was designed and implemented and its efficiency was verified. In the end, using MAPE[1], RMSE[2]and R2 error measurement, the results of ANN-GA model were compared with those of SQDF model. The results showed that Hybrid model has much better performance and fewer errors than SQDF model in the detection of stock price manipulation and classifying firms into two groups, manipulate and non-manipulate

In recent years, earnings management in university research has attracted much attention. The aim of this study is to predict earnings management through discretionary accruals based on adjusted Jones model. In this study, two models of artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms - neural network hybrid model as a successful model to predict earnings management based on adjusted Jones model were used in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The sample used in this study is consisted of 570 firm-year between 2008 to 2013. The results showed that neural networks have a high ability to predict earnings management rather than the adjusted Jones linear model. The findings also suggest that, the genetic algorithm through optimizing artificial neural network weights is able to increase power of artificial neural network to predict earnings management.

In this study, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDF) model and the hybrid model of Genetic Algorithm based on Artificial Neural Network)ANN-GA) are used to estimate manipulation of stock prices in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, first by using screening data method, a sample of 345 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange were selected and then information about the 'TEDPIX' index, closing price, volatility of closing price and trading volume in the timeframe years 1387 to 1391 were collected. Afterwards the selected companies categorized into manipulated and non-manipulated groups by using duration dependence test and run test. Then with scrutiny of the trend of Tedpix's chart and volume chart of the manipulated group, Start of price manipulation is determined. In next step by using Linear Discriminant Function)LDF), Quadratic Discriminant Function)QDF) and Genetic Algorithm based Artificial Neural Network and by using closing price, volatility of closing price and trading volume variables and also using information in range one year before starting manipulation group and in range four years for non-manipulation group, designed models for forecasting manipulation. At the end, the prediction ability of the models was examined. According to the results, the prediction ability of QDF model compared to the ANN model is better.

This project is looking for increasing return on investment، by presenting models based on artificial intelligence. Investment in financial markets could be considered in short-term (daily) and middle-term (monthly) basis. hence the daily data in Tehran Stock Exchange and the rates of foreign exchange and gold coins have been extracted for the period Mar. 2010 to Sep. 2012 and recorded as the data into the neural networks and the genetic programming model. Also the monthly rate of return and risk of 20 active companies of the stock exchange، and the monthly risk values of foreign exchange and gold coin، as well as bank deposits were used as genetic algorithms in order to provide optimum investment portfolios for the investors. The results obtained from executing the models indicates the efficiency of both methods of artificial neural network and also genetic programming in the short-term financial markets predictions، but artificial neural networks show a better efficiency. Also the efficiency of genetic algorithm was approved in improving the rate of return and risks، via identifying the optimum investment portfolios.