جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "سناریو" در نشریات گروه "برق"

Today, organizations, especially network-based organizations, face new types of risks due to constant turmoil and changes in their business environment. Failure to effectively manage these risks over time will have a negative impact on their performance as well as their success. In such situations, organizations must use new tools and methods to solve the risks of their work environment. One of the effective methods in this field is the application of knowledge management in various processes of the organization, including risk management. Accordingly, the present article seeks to investigate the possibility of applying knowledge management processes in management processes with a system dynamics approach and presents different scenarios resulting from the integration of knowledge and risk management to reduce risk at the level of network-based organizations. is. In order to achieve this goal, by reviewing the literature and reviewing the documents, first the key variables of knowledge management and risk management have been identified and based on this, dynamic model hypotheses have been developed. In the following, the cause-and-effect diagrams and state-flow diagrams and equations related to the relationships of the model variables are extracted. Finally, after testing and simulating the dynamic model using Vinsim software over a period of 12 months, different scenarios are proposed for application. The results show the selected improvement scenarios in the variables related to the risk management process using knowledge management.

With the increasing development of human science and societies as well as increased air pollution and global temperature, the need for renewable energy and electric vehicles has increased more than ever. Wind farms, as well as solar cells have a special place because of their greater production capacity, more general acceptability and cost-effectiveness. The main challenge in RESs development is uncertainty in their generation due to lack of continuous availability of adequate wind speed and solar radiation during 24 hours of day. In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is proposed for power system probabilistic scheduling considering electric vehicles and RESs. In the proposed model, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) approach is employed to generate scenarios for wind speed and solar radiation. Besides, a technique based on Kantorovich distance matrix is employed to reduce the generated scenarios. Conditional value at risk (CVaR) method is used for management and analysis of risks due to the system uncertainties. Moreover, the efficiency of electric vehicles batteries to cover the uncertainties of RESs is evaluated. Furthermore, the optimal placement of Vehicle to grid (V2g) stations and RESs (wind and solar farms) are determined. Modified IEEE 24-bus test system including two wind farms, three solar farms and three V2g stations is studied to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. Results of simulation in Gams software environment demonstrate that the power stored in V2g stations play an effective role in covering the uncertainties of wind and solar farms power generation.

Differen world energy outlook with different horizons (2035, 2040 and 2050) show that demand for primary energy will increase. The energymix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based although the share of theses fuels will decrease. Accorging to some forecasts, energy consumption will increase more than 50 percent during next 30 years which most of this growth belongs to non-OECD countries. In supply side, the fastest growth will belong to natural gas and renewables. According to World Energy Council (WEC), Environmental sustainability، energy security, and energy equity are three pillars of the energy trilemma. The WEC has built two scenarios for fulfillment of these goals for world energy outlook to 2050. The more consumer-driven Jazz scenario has a focus on energy equity with priority given to achieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic growth. But more voter-driven Symphony scenario has a focus on achieving environmental sustainability through internationally coordinated policies and practices. In Jazz scenario, the growth of energy consumption is more than Symphony scenario. In addition, the growth of renewables in Symphony scenario is twice of Jazz scenario.

In 2010, the global transport sector consumed about 2,200 million tons of oil equivalent. About 96% of this amount came from oil. It shows that more than 60% of the oil consumed globally goes to the transportation sector. Road transport accounts for the bulk of the transportation energy consumption. The light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including light trucks, light commercial vehicles, and minibuses accounted for about 52%. World Energy Council (WEC) has re-examined the future of the transport sector by building Global Transport Scenarios to 2050 “Freeway” and “Tollway.” The “Freeway” scenario envisages a world where pure market forces prevail to create a climate for open global competition. The “Tollway” scenario describes a more regulated world where governments decide to intervene in markets to promote technology solutions and infrastructure development that put common interests at the forefront. In 2050, total fuel demand in all transport modes will increase by 30% (Tollway) to 82% (Freeway) above the 2010 levels. Transport sector fuel mix will still depend heavily on gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and jet fuel.

Differen world energy outlook with different horizons (2035, 2040 and 2050) show that demand for primary energy will increase. The energymix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based although the share of theses fuels will decrease. Accorging to some forecasts, energy consumption will increase more than 50 percent during next 30 years which most of this growth belongs to non-OECD countries. In supply side, the fastest growth will belong to natural gas and renewables. According to World Energy Council (WEC), Environmental sustainability، energy security, and energy equity are three pillars ofthe energy trilemma. The WEC has built two scenarios for fulfillment of these goals for world energy outlook to 2050. The more consumer-driven Jazzscenario has a focus on energy equity with priority given toachieving individual access and affordability of energy through economic growth. But more voter-driven Symphony scenario has a focus on achieving environmentalsustainability through internationally coordinated policies and practices. In Jazz scenario, the growth of energy consumption is more than Symphony scenario. In addition, the growth of renewables in Symphony scenario is twice of Jazz scenario.