جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "real exchange rate" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد کشاورزی"

Dairy products are one of the most valuable foods that contain almost all the necessary ingredients for the growth and continuation of human life. Among Iran's food products, the dairy products occupy the first place in exports and play an important role in the country's foreign exchange. Iran has a self-sufficiency of about one hundred percent in milk and that is why the government and the dairy sector tend to aim at exporting milk to other countries. Iran is a young player in dairy exports but has already reached an annual export level of 600,000 tons of dairy products. The country aims to be a regional key player in the dairy exports. This requires top quality milk and techniques. Finding markets for export is a big challenge for the government. A good condition for export over large distances would be the dairy products with internationally recognized brand names. This study aimed at investigating the impact of effective exchange rate on the export of Iranian dairy products. For this purpose, firstly, the current conditions of dairy products export as well as the effective exchange rate fluctuations during 1991-2021 were identified as the factors affecting the export development. Then, these factors were tested using the Markov switching model. After performing the static test, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to examine currency shocks and the production gap. The study findings showed that the variables of real exchange rate and domestic production of milk positively and inflation negatively affected the export of dairy products; the real effective exchange rate in both regimes had a positive and significant impact on the export value of the dairy products; in addition, in both regimes, the domestic milk production had a positive and significant effect on the model, while the inflation in the both regimes of the estimated model had a negative but significant impact on the dairy exports. The way of managing Iran's economy, the characteristics of policy making, the commercial influence on the supply and demand of currency through export and import as well as the management of the currency market by the government and the central bank, according to the fundamental changes in these two institutions, have all had a significant impact on the behavior of the exchange rate in the country. Therefore, according to the concerned results, an increase in the real exchange rate could lead to an increase in the export of dairy products. Although in the current situation, one of the main drivers of the government to increase imports and exports is to stabilize the exchange rate, but due to the different effects of exchange rate changes on different products, it is recommended that the real exchange rate calculated in this study be used to evaluate some economic policies such as agricultural policies.

The inefficiency of the agricultural product marketing system and the significant gap between producer prices and consumer payments are the major problems of the agricultural sector in most developing countries, which illustrates the need to achieve an optimal production situation and to reduce marketing margins by developing appropriate support policies for the agricultural sector. Therefore, in this article, the effect of consumer and producer protection policies on the marketing margin of chicken meat in Iran using the VECM model in the period 2002-2018 has been studied. According to the results, both indicators have a positive and significant effect on the marketing margin of chicken meat in the country, so that for one percent increase in consumer and producer support, the marketing margin of the product will increase by 23.75 and 19.92 units, respectively. In fact, not only these supports will not reduce the marketing margin of chicken meat in the country, but they will also increase the price margin and market inefficiency of this product. Accordingly, it is suggested that before implementing any policy, including pricing and budget support policies, the effects of these policies should be evaluated and with careful and purposeful planning, support should be designed in line with the goals of agricultural development programs.

Factors Affecting Food Price Index in Iran According to the of Nutrition in Economic Development, Food topics, Especially in the Developing Countries, are of Utmost Importance. One of the Most Important Determinants of Food Demand is the Food Prices. The Aim of This Study is the Most Important Determinant of Economic Factors of the Food Price Index in Iran Using the Latest Information Published in 2016. For this Purpose, Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Method and Time Series Data for the Years 1983-2014 has Been Estimated Desired Pattern. Based on the Results, the Variable of Gross Investment, Trade Openness and Real Exchange Rate in the Short and Long Term had a Negative Impact and Liquidity and GDP Variables had a Positive Impact on the Food Price Index.
Keywords: Food Price Index, openness, real exchange rate, GDP

Exchange rate is one of the important factors which affect the price of imported inputs like dairy & poultry subsector inputs prices. This study develops a system of empirical models that analysis the exchange rate and the LOP effects on dairy & poultry industry inputs prices (maze, soybeans, barley and fish powder). To achieve the aims of study, we used vector autoregressive (VAR) model in seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) framework over the period 1381:m1–1391m12. Dichey-Fuller unit root test suggested that all of the variables support the presence of unit root but the presence unit roots can be rejected in the first difference model. The results revealed that, in general, real exchange rate only affects the prices of soybeans and fish powder. A 1% depreciation of the domestic money raises the prices of soybean and fish powder by 8% and 23% respectively, at the same month. Also, results imply no exchange rate pass-through and invalidity of the LOP. According to the results, preventing from intensive increase in exchange rate and its volatility are very important steps on stability of dairy & poultry subsector input prices.

Oil sector plays a decisive role in the Iranian economy and oil revenue fluctuations have great impact on the economy as a whole and its various sectors. In addition, exchange rate volatility affects production and economic growth. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of oil shocks and the uncertainty caused by exchange rate volatility on the growth of the agricultural sector in Iran during the period 1974-2012. For this purpse, structural vector autoregression (SVAR) method, impulse response functions (IRF) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) techniques were used. The results revealed that negative oil revenues shocks had positive impact (0.048) while positive oil revenues shocks had negative impact (-0.046) on the growth of the agricultural sector. The impact of real exchange rate volatility on the value added agriculture was significant and equal to -0/013. The results confirmed the existence of Dutch disease in the agricultural sector.

In this study long run relation and short run dynamics between agricultural trade balance and macroeconomic variables in Iran have been examined. For this purpose Johanson cointegration test and vector error correction model were applied. Results showed that agricultural value added، exchange rate، economic openness index and agricultural import tariff have positive and significant impact on agricultural trade balance، whereas per capital disposable income and food whole sale price index have negative and significant impact on agricultural trade balance. Moreover، impulse response function results showed that a shocked in agricultural value added، economic openness index and food whole sale price index have positive influence on agricultural trade balance. Also، variance decomposition results showed that agricultural trade balance، agricultural import tariff، economic openness index and real exchange rate describe major part of changes in agricultural trade balance. Finally، agricultural trade balance might improve if real exchange rate increase and government proved open economic condition.

Increasing the export of agricultural products in Iran is an essential act in order to abandon one dimensional export in Iran. It is important to note fig export among other dried fruits. Then it is significant to consider exchange rate and its fluctuation on agricultural exports. This essay investigates the long and short term transitional effect of exchange rate on export price of fig in Fars during 1351-1390. To do so self-regression patterns by broad interval (ARDL) are used. And information and statistics of FAO and central bank are analyzed by Microfit4 software. The results show that، long term variations in exchange rate are the most important factor of the export price of fig. According to these results I suggest that central bank employ money politics in order to abandon exchange rate fluctuations.

The adoption of the flexible exchange rate system by many countries in 1973 produced a significant volatility and uncertainty in exchange rates wich has hsd many impacts on the various economic variables. This paper analyses the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on the agricultural employment in Iran during 1971-2007. The generalized autoregressive conditional hetroscedasticity approach is applied to measure the exchange rate uncertainty. Error-correction and Co-integration models are used to estimate the short-run dynamics and the co-integrating relations، respectively. The results obtained revealed that the real exchange rate uncertainty has negative impact on agricultural employment in Iran. Variance decomposition indicated that all the changes of agricultural employment variable have been explained by the variable itself during the first period. As this variable share has decreased during the next periods، the other variables share has increased among the variables of model. The impulse response functions also indicated that، the effect of shocks resulted from agricultural employment on the variable itself is significant، but from other variables is insignificant. In order to moderate the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on agricultural employment، it is suggested that the government implements policies supporting the production and trade in this sector.

The main purpose of this study was to examin the circumstance of bank credits effect on production and export of agricultural sector over the 1984-2006 periods. First, by using time series analysis, stationary and cointegration between variables were analysed and long-run relationship was estimated. To this end, the Johansen's cointegration method and several other methods (such as SUR) for production and export have been used. The results show that variables of credits, investment stock and labor had positive and significant impacts on value added of agricultural sector. The results also revealed that variables of value added, real exchange rate and capital stock had positive and significant impacts on agricultural export sector.Research finding reveal that there is a positive relation between bank credits and agricultural export in this section.