The Movement Potential Evaluation of the North Tabriz Fault

Tabriz Fault is one of the major faults of Iran that is situated in the northwest of Iran and central part of the Iranian Azerbaijan. The fault has a well-known paleoseismological history, and being situated adjacent to the Tabriz city with two millions ofinhabitants makes ita big seismic hazard. In this research,a study of instrumental seismic data, remote sensing and field observationsalong the Tabriz Fault Zone north of Miyaneh to the west of Marand cities helped us to define three main segments along the fault. Fault Movement Potential (FMP) has a close relationship with tectonic stress in and around a given fault zone. Therefore, the stress state was analyzed using direct inversion method to estimate potential movement of each segment of the Tabriz Fault. Results showedthat the middle and southern segments of the Tabriz Fault have a FMP of 0.67-0.73,implying their high potential of reactivation and generating large and destructive earthquakes, assupported bythe richseismic history of these segments. Therefore the results of this research estimatea 70% movement probability for the North Tabriz Fault. In contrast, the northern segment of the Tabriz Fault (western part of the fault close to the Marand city)showsa FMF of 0.3-0.37,indicatingits lower potential of reactivation compared to the middle and southern segments. This is also in agreement with the poor seismic history of the northern segment.