Simulation of Climate Change in Sistan and Baluchestan for the period 2009-2040 by Using Downscaling the Data of Global Circulation Model

The main purpose of this paper is to study climate changes and fluctuations in the four synoptic stations in Sistan and Baluchistan province in the past few years and to analyze statistically and simulates and forecast for the next years (2040-2009). This study used data from the outputs of general circulation climate model ECHO-G with A1 scenario that are now used at the University of Hamburg, Germany, and the Korea Research Center for Downscaling on selected stations and the results were analyzed.Model of the stations studied, indicated that the model parameters at the stations could simulate the minimum temperature, maximum temperature and the radiation well, but simulation of rainfall had an error especially in Zabol station. Analyzing the data generated in the course of future climate and its comparison with the previous period indicated an increase in precipitation stations and the heavy precipitation in the range of the station. In the course of the future, climatic factors increased in minimum temperature more than the maximum temperature that lead to a decrease in the range of temperature and reduced thermal comfort in the coming years for the province. An increase in the number of hot days and decrease in the number of frost days (especially in Zabol and Zahedan station) in the course of future climatic are other results of the data. Radiating element in Zahedan station in all months, and at other stations in most months increases compared to the previous period.