The Effects of Oil Boom and Oil Revenues Management on the Optimal Path of Iranian Macroeconomic Variables (Based on Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium)

In this paper, we try to analyze the effects of oil boom and management of oil revenues by government in a sustainable manner on optimal path of Iranian macroeconomic variables by designing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. This paper considers several scenarios of utilizing oil revenues in terms of allocating these revenues between savings in the form of oil fund on the one hand and consumption of oil revenues on the other hand. The results show that the a 50 percent increase in world oil price leads to higher optimal level of GDP, but the level of GDP excluding oil exports is reduced. According to the results, the long-term reaction of Iranian economy in the face of permanent shocks of oil price is consistent with the theory of Dutch disease. Due to the Dutch disease, production factors are decreased in tradable sectors and increased in oil and non-tradable sectors. However, the increase in employment in the oil and non-tradable sectors will not compensate for the fall of employment in the tradable sectors, thus total employment will decline. The analysis of oil revenue management shows that saving oil revenue in an oil fund leads to higher level of total consumption and gross domestic product in the long run. Saving oil revenues in an oil fund not only ensures precautionary measures against the so-called Dutch Disease syndrome, but also leads to increase in total employment.