Future Research for Knowledge Management Strategies by Scenario Planning Approach

The knowledge for organizations is of strategic assets, hence, the scholars of management science know the knowledge as sustainable advantage enabler; so, to maintain this advantage for future, the organizations should enhance its readiness to act against possible situations and to prescribe appropriate strategy of knowledge management. The purpose of the study is to identifying the affective factors on KMS and the possible scenarios facing the organization, suggesting required reflections for probable futures, and proposing suitable KMS for them. In this research, scenario-planning approach by ScenarioWizard software used to forecast the possible futures, and the Raja Company selected as case study. The study is practical in terms of objective and using surveying method, which implemented at explorative level. Using Balanced Cross-Impact Analysis, 8 strong scenarios and 81 weak ones gained, which 3 ones selected as optimistic, pessimistic and most probable scenarios, and by interviewing of a 5-member group, they proposed suitable actions and arrangements, and compatible KMS's were selected for them. As a result, the dynamic strategy of KM with more focus on human-oriented strategy were suggested for optimistic scenario, and for two other scenarios, the dynamic strategy of KM with more respect to system-oriented strategy were selected.