Behavioural Analysis on Oil Reserve Reports by OPEC Members And its Consequences on Their Oil Supply

Expectations play a key role in crude oil price fluctuations. It seems it is the prime effect on the diversified supply behaviours and eventually the actual oil price alterations.
Therefore, having studied the main influences on the expectations, the nature of the oil market and its potentials can be clearly and consistently deduced.
One of the significant essentials with a high impact on the prospective oil price expectations is the current oil reserves volume, specifically for the OPEC members, and the very limited improved oil reserves volume.
The vital importance of the oil reserves volume for the OPEC members, in addition to the prestige, is to obtain a larger share of the total OPEC oil supply. In the early 1980s, while establishing the system of allocating national supply quotas for OPEC members, the “reserve volume” was defined among the main criteria. Hence the start of a competitive behaviour for exceeding reserve volume reports among the members.
This paper tries to investigate the actual impact of this non-real information on the major strategies and policies of OPEC.
Based on this research, there is no considerable correlation between the reserves volume increase and crude oil supply fluctuations for most of the OPEC countries. Accordingly, the exaggerated oil reserve reports are the consequences of a hidden competition among members to leverage a better and higher position in the organization, and a larger share in the oil supply.