فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 83 (زمستان 1403)

Export diversification means the increase of export items by a country, depending on the level of growth, industrial development and economic structure of that country, it can have positive or negative effects on energy intensity in that country. The aim of this study is to investigate the threshold effect of industrialization on the relationship between export diversity and energy intensity in Iran during the period from 1965 to 2022. For this purpose, a smooth transition regression model (STAR) is estimated with a threshold level, where the level of industrialization is chosen as the transition variable. The results show that the industrialization index variable can play an important role in changing the coefficients in the energy intensity pattern as a transmission variable. Thus, in the early stages of industrialization, the increase in export diversity led to a decrease in energy intensity, and after the economy passed a certain level of industrialization, with the increase in export diversity, due to the entry of industrial products with higher energy into the export basket, energy intensity has also gone up. It was also observed that urbanization has a negative and significant effect on energy intensity.

Considering the strong dependence of oil-rich countries on oil and the impact of their financial and economic development on the price fluctuations of this strategic product, the study of price fluctuations and the resulting shocks has gained a very important place in the research literature of these countries. Therefore, in this study, in order to investigate the impact of shocks resulting from oil price changes on financial development based on the stock market of Iran, using monthly data from 1990-2018, the impact of three important shocks of demand, supply and risk related to oil price changes It was estimated on the stock returns of Tehran Stock Exchange using autoregressive model with non-linear distribution interval (NARDL). The results indicate that it is only oil price risk and demand shocks that have an impact on Iran's stock returns, and the oil price supply shock was not an influential element. Therefore, the findings of this research support the view that the return of securities in Iran, especially stocks, reacts to oil price shocks.

The state of Gasoline consumption in Iran has grown significantly in the following years. According to the report of Iran's National Company for Refining and Distribution of Petroleum Products, the daily consumption of gasoline in 2024 has reached about 112 million liters, which shows an increase of more than 40% compared to 2016. According to reports, this amount of consumption reaches 140 million liters per day even during holidays and with the growth of trips. On the other hand, there is a limited capacity to produce gasoline in the country. The nominal production complexes of the refinery produce about 110 million liters per day, but in practice it is only between 98 and 104 million liters per day. On the other hand, according to the reports and comments of the country's official authorities, the amount of gasoline shortage has reached 6 to 11 million liters per day in the last two years, which leads to a foreign exchange loss of about three million dollars in imports. . is Several solutions have been stated to deal with the problem of Natrazi Ben, the production of natural gas by the process known as GTL (Gas to Liquid) can be a suitable option to solve this problem. GTL technology refers to a process in which natural gas is converted into valuable products such as methanol, dimethyl ether and other intermediates (such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene). In this research, the economic evaluation of the gasoline production plan using GTL technology and its comparison with the imported price in order to deal with the problem of gasoline imbalance as one of the solutions has been paid. The results of this research indicate that it produces a factor, which means that two factors that have two factors are evaluated according to the values ​​of the plan and by increasing the value, it significantly affects the evaluation indices. GTL units as well as internal rate of return assessment and thus investment attractiveness increases. Also, the price of gasoline produced from this project is affordable in all cases compared to the produced gasoline, and if the problem of gasoline imbalance continues in the long term, it is recommended to build these units.

Gas is one of the most important fossil fuels and it is expected to take the place of oil in the energy consumption market with the continuation of the existing conditions in the horizon of 2040. Due to the importance of this product, in this research, an image of the important gas markets of the world has been presented and the role of financial markets on the cash price of gas has been investigated in the three markets of Henry Hub, Europe and London. In this research, daily data was used from January 1993 to April 2023. The Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, and vector error correction model were used to analyze the data. The results of the research showed that the Henry Hub gas market has a high pricing power compared to the European and London markets; Also, the price of gas in the European market can to some extent affect the determination of the cash price of gas in the London market; But the price of gas in the London market is determined by other markets and this market is generally affordable. Also, the findings of the research show that at the 95% confidence level, the American capital market index has a negative effect on the cash price of gas in all three regional markets in the long term, which is statistically significant in the European and London markets. In addition, in the short term, the American capital market index has a positive effect on the cash price of gas in the Henry Hub market, but its effect on the cash price of gas in the other two markets is negative. The findings of the research indicate that in the long term, the American interest rate has not had a significant effect on the cash price of gas in any of the investigated markets; however, in the short term, this variable has a negative and significant effect on the cash price of gas in the hub art market and Europe.

Due to the concerns caused by the uncontrolled consumption of fossil fuels, governments and organizations are moving towards the use of new technologies with low environmental pollution as the renewable resources such as wind sources. Therefore, it is expected that the capacity of the mentioned resources in the distribution network will increase a lot in the next few years. Therefore, to prevent accidents that can be expected from the lack of management of these elements in the distribution network, there is a need to manage the energy of the mentioned elements and also to reconfiguration the network structure to increase the capacity of the distribution network to use these resources. In addition to this, increasing the number of mentioned elements in the distribution network will increase the uncertainty parameters of the distribution network. Therefore, the operator of the distribution network should be able to perform certain management conditions for all the scenarios resulting from the uncertainty of various parameters, so that in this case the distribution network is able to operate with proper performance. The results show that the use of distributed generations reduces costs by 77%, and the use of compensation and reconfiguration reduces costs by 18%.

The intermediary role of electricity in various industries and its correlation with societal well-being have gained increased significance. Awareness of the demand for this energy plays a crucial role in guiding the country towards development. In recent decades, with the advancements in deep learning models and their heightened accuracy, their usage has become prevalent. In the realm of modeling and predicting electricity consumption, incorporating influential variables is crucial for enhancing prediction accuracy. Thus, in this research, variables such as non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP), average country temperature, holidays, and electricity consumption trends are utilized. The TPE optimization algorithm is employed to optimize the LSTM model. For result comparison, an alternative model excluding two variables, non-oil GDP and holidays, is designed and optimized using the TPE algorithm. The study results indicate that the model incorporating variables like non-oil GDP and holidays exhibits higher accuracy compared to the model without these two variables

This article investigates the relationship between transportation infrastructure, renewable energy sources and economic growth in Iran during the period of 1991-2021 using self-explanatory vector methods with distributive breaks and short-term and long-term Grangerian causality using the error correction model. . The results of this study show that renewable energy moderates the consumption of petroleum products in the long term for Iran by 0.48%. In addition, transportation, foreign direct investment and added value of industry increase the consumption of petroleum products in Iran by 0.66, 0.14 and 0.33%, respectively. Also, a strong short-term and long-term causality relationship is confirmed from the side of renewable energies to the transportation industry infrastructure, and a strong short-term and long-term causality relationship is also confirmed from the side of the transportation infrastructure to economic growth. The strong short-term and long-term causality relationship from renewable energy to economic growth is also confirmed.

In recent decades the removal and reduction of subsidies or concessions for consumers of fossil fuel products such as oil has always been the focus of researchers in the field of energy economics .While the removal concessions for producers of these resources has rarely been discussed by researchers .This research with the purpose of studying the behavior of the oil producing company and considering the elimination of producer privileges ,in addition to developing an economic optimization model of oil production on one of the oil fields in the south of Iran according to the actual production of the field in the period from 2018-2037,has also been studied and investigated in the from of Iran`s new oil contracts (IPC).Therefore the implementation of the scenario of removing the privileges of the oil producing company shows the reduction of the optimal production rate .Despite the fact that the increase in the discount rate accelerates  the negative effects of removing points and has the opposite impact on the producer`s benefits.

This article examines the effect of oil price fluctuations on Iran's economic growth. The research data are quarterly and cover the period from 1991:1 to 2021:4. For this purpose, first the oil price instability index is estimated using the GARCH model, then the mutual relationships between the model variables are examined using the vector autoregressive (VAR) method, and finally the long-term relationship between the variables is extracted using the Johansen cointegration method. Based on the impulse response functions, the oil price shock has had a negative impact on production. Also, according to the estimated long-term relationship during the study period, the variables of private consumption expenditure, investment, and net exports have had a positive and significant impact on GDP, which is consistent with the theoretical basis of the research. In the long run, the oil price variable has had a positive effect and the oil price instability has had a negative effect on GDP. Given the country's strong dependence on oil and oil revenues, the above results are acceptable. Another finding of the study is that the effect of an increase in oil prices has been significant in all cases and greater than the effect of a decrease in oil prices. The results also show that monetary shocks, along with oil price shocks, have a significant effect on GDP.