Analysis of the maximum extent of temperature fluctuations using the time series models Holt-Winter and I - Kendall in dry areas: A case study of the city of Yazd

Nowadays, one of the important issues in world scientific circles is climate change, global warming and its consequences in different countries. In this study, we try to check the temperature rise in Yazd, which is to be paid maximum attention. The data about the absolute annual maximum daily temperature collected during a 50-year period (2010-1961) were obtained from certain stations. A regression method (poly Nomial and logarithmic) and the Kendall trend statistics test were used for significant changes in the temperature series. The results comparatively showed the temperature levels of the 1970s, the 1980s, and the 2000s, suggesting that, in the 1970s, the temperature was higher than the long-term average of the coldest and warmest decades of the 2000. The study also showed that there have been seasonal fluctuations in the temperature range of Yazd, but these fluctuations are not significant. It turned out that the best model for predicting the maximum extent of fluctuation in Yazd is the Holt- winter model. It is predicted that the temperature rise in the years 2016 and 2020 will be challenging.