Climate Change Analysis and Its Impacts in Qom Province, Iran

1. Qom as one of the provinces with the lowest amount of rainfall in Iran, is facing adverse effects of growing population, developing industrial and agriculture activities along with rainfall reduction, temperature and wind increase and unbridle exploitation of water resources over recent past years. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the climatic variable factors trend to be considered in managing, planning and proper development of the province. The climate change is the main challenge in area. Hence, determining the climate change trend and identifying the results and impacts of climate change is a crucial action and first step in planning. Identification the climate change trend is the main aims of this manuscript.
2. Methodology The area of study: The study carried out in Qom province, which located at 50° 3' to 51° 55' N, 34° 3' to 35° 13' E in center of Iran. Qom province is about 120 km from Tehran (Figure 1). The area has a semi and arid climate with hot summer and cold winters. The study is limit to the city of Qom. City of Qom located in height of 878 meters from sea level. The main synoptic station in area is the Shokuhieh station. Therefore, the data provided by this station is considered as base for analysis of climate change trends.
The identification of trends in Climatic factor could be determines by different method and techniques. Whenever the climatic factors do not follow a normal distribution, then the raking tests will be an appropriate test. Man-Kendal test is one of raking test that able to evaluate the climatic factors.
The precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind are four main factors, which are examined in this manuscript. We used the synoptic data from 1989 up to 2014 to analysis the changes trend based on suggested method.
3. To Mann-Kendall test has been used to process a few climatic variables from 1989-2014 in the area. This suggests average minimum and average annual temperature have experienced dramatic change and have positive significant variability at 99% reliability (figure 2,3,4 and 5), but average annual rainfall shows no significant trend as figure 6 shows. Average annual relative humidity fluctuates wildly and in 2010, after a sudden change, follows a noticeably upward trend at 95% reliability (Figure 7 and 8). Average wind speed has had a rising trend since 2001, but no sudden change occurred until 2013 as illustrated in Figure 9. Almost all noticeable upward trends and sudden climatic changes happened over late four years of research. Intensive rainfalls, water/wind erosion, desertification, and increase in the intensified droughts and decline in water resources as well groundwater level and quality are among adverse effects of climate change.
4- The result indicates that the area experiences some kind of changes. However, the main point is the intensive the changes in recent years. Almost all noticeable upward trends and sudden climatic changes happened over late four years of research. Intensive rainfalls, water/wind erosion, desertification, and increase in the intensified droughts and decline in water resources as well groundwater level and quality are among adverse effects of climate change.
5- Climate changes has begun in area. The main changes are related to the recent years. The analysis of trend of main climatic factor indicates that changes mainly reflect by temperature and wind. Although the change in rainfall is limit but weak signal of change in rainfall observed. It seems that changes in rainfall will be intensified in nest following years. The general trend indicates that climate of area will be tougher and its impact will be intensified the process of desertification. As result, the problems, which associated the desertification, will be exacerbated.