Future Study of Investment in the Housing Industry in Iran Using Scenario Planning Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix

Housing sector is one of the pioneer sectors of every economy that attention to that moreover deep social and cultural influences and making jobs in building sector and dependent sectors, by means of influence on consuming expenditures and investment, effects strongly on gross domestic product changes and economical fluctuations. Also in recent years, this industry always has faced with splendor and stagnancy. so in this research, housing industry with regard to importance and it`s role in economical development and public welfare, with financial view investigated as Futures study. As identifying effective key factors on investment and future profitability of housing industry are important, this research with using ultra disciplinary of futures study intends to apply recognitional instruments and scenario writing, presents a clear view of future of Iran housing industry to programmers and investors. because of this research is done with general and comprehensive view related to research variables, results of this research can be generalized to housing industry of country. in this research with studying subject literature and interview with experts of housing industry, effective factors on research variables are identified and next, with using cross impact analysis approach, data entered to Mic-mac software and 4 effective key factors on future of investment and profitability are specified including economical sanctions, scale of government investment in housing sector, economical splendor and stagnancy, scale of access to infrastructural networks that are selected among 40 effective factors. in next phase, for writing scenarios, 4 effective key factors with specifying uncertainty states in questionnaire by experts, entered to Scenariowizard software and the most consistent future forthcoming scenarios of housing industry specified . After identifying scenarios and consult experts, economical sanctions and scsle of government investment in housing sector selected for writing scenarios and with regards to their conditions, future of housing industry presented in the form of 4 scenarios.