Prediction of drought condition during 2018-2037 period under Climate Change Approach (Case study: Ilam and Dehloran Stations)

Drought phenomena may cause unpredictable changes under influence of climate change and there are indexes for its evaluation. In this research, firstly, base period’s drought (1998-2017) was evaluated in 3, 6, 12 and 24-month time series in synoptic stations of Ilam and Dehloran, located in Ilam province, through using monthly precipitation data. Then, monthly precipitation of future period (2018-2037) were studied through using daily data of precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and radiation via using downscaling LARS-WG Model under Hadcm3 General Circulation Model and A2 and B1 Regional Scenarios. Then, SPI drought index was evaluated for future period in desired time series. Results of drought evaluation in base period in Ilam Station represented that 2008-2014 period had been a relatively humid period. It also represented timid period in Dehloran Station at beginning of period. Evaluation of drought in future period based on A2 and B1 Scenarios presented there will be a mostly drought period in Ilam Station between 2025 to 2035. Also, there will be a complete drought period in Dehloran Station from 2019 to 2021. Also, results represented that duration of drought and timid periods are increasing and their severity will be decreased by increase of statistical period.