Providing a model to prepare map of seismic hazard analysis by using spatial information systems with consideration of uncertainty

Iran is a vast country that has long been an area of the Earth’s crust caused by the release of energy accumulated in it, always large and destructive shake occurs. Therefore, the analysis of natural hazards is essential because it can make decisions and prioritization of actions in crisis management, essential steps to be taken. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a model for seismic hazard analysis based on both main hazard of ground shaking and ground failure. Therefore, due to the large descriptive and location data, Software system designed and developed based on Geo-spatial information system and the ability to analyze the spatial data. This model to analyze the hazard analysis of ground shaking, in two attenuation relationship is used for the country, which according to the uncertainties involved in earthquake (magnitude of earthquake, focal depth and location of epicenter of the earthquake), this operation is selected at random each time and after each hazard analysis, the output of ground shaking (Peak ground acceleration, Peak ground velocity and peak ground displacement) is calculated. In the proposed model to analyze the hazard analysis of ground failure, based on area and proposed algorithms, three secondary hazard of earthquake (liquefaction, landslides and faulting) is analyzed. At this stage, given the liquefaction and landslide susceptibility can be calculated permanent displacement caused by liquefaction and landslide hazards for each component and each iteration of the simulation. All these steps are based on Monte Carlo simulation to considering the uncertainties are repeated 10 thousand times. Then averaging available outputs in the database, so that all failure modes be considered. This model could provide map of ground shaking and ground failure hazard for each parameter. In this paper, in order to get a better view this research, models was implemented and analyzed for the city of Neyshabour. That according to the selected scenario, the values of between 0.037 g to 0.48g PGA was calculated for the city. Liquefaction susceptibility in this city is mostly between 2 category of low and medium susceptibility. There was high susceptibility in the northwestern city. Landslide susceptibility in this city was evaluated mostly on the none susceptibility. Most displacement caused by liquefaction is related to the hazard of lateral spread that was evaluated mostly between 1 and 9 inches.