Simulation of Enhanced Oil Recovery Technology RoadMapping with System Dynamics Method

The process of interal Research and Development is in order to develope, implement, maintain, promote, and upgrade of the new technology. considering that development of new technology in the process of interal Research and Development leads to increase costs. The costs of Research and Development in the oil industries are enormous and must be mapped to the development for each of the key equipments of a detailed technological path map.However, the formulation and implementation of the road map is associated with variety of risks. Therefore, the limits of the financial resources to invest in research and development in the process of compiling the road map for increasing oil harvest technology in the process of development of oil harvesting technologies are presented as the current research problem, which have been studied by System Dynamics in the Oil Industries Engineering and Construction Group.The key variables and Causal Loop Diagram were identified via expert opinion and data. After that the mathematical relationships of variables were determined according to research background and in approximately two years, a mathematical model of the system was developed using computer simulations in Vensim. The results indicated two types of Damped oscillation and Goal-seeking dynamic behaviors for model variables. Further, the dynamic hypotheses testing indicated that increased technological maturity and education reduces costs while increased technologic complexity increases costs. The best scenario was identified as a combination of highly-mature technology, high complexity, and high education level as it incurred minimum costs.