The Future of Iraq and Its Related Scenarios (2010 - 2020)

Since the Second World War up to now and in contemporary political history, Iraq was one of the most challenging countries in south west Asia (Middle East). Unmistakable, determinant and important role of Iraq in political conditions in geopolitics of the region is one of the main reasons of these challenges. Like the past, Iraq has the key and determinant role in the current developments of the region. This role will lead to interest and actions conflict among different regional and international powers in this supersensitive region. The main objective of this research is the future of Iraq with respect to political and security conditions of this country. In the context of secondary objectives we can refer to influence of internal, regional and international actors in Iraq’s current developments, predicting territorial future of Iraq and feasibility study of Iraq’s disintegration. Researcher based on the future studies, with respect to the type of current trends and also through the game theory, surveyed the subject. Within analyzing the subject, the role of different actors and alter ant factors in geopolitical scene of Iraq and its impacts on the future and territorial integrity of Iraq is surveyed. Finally after planning probable scenarios about disintegration or non-disintegration of Iraq through the next decade, the future of this country is anticipated as follows: 1- Iraq disintegration scenario 2- Iraq civil war scenario3- democratic and square distribution of power scenario.  At last, the position of actors in respect to mentioned scenarios, before and after ISIS outbreak in Iraq as well as determinant factors of actors’ role in Geopolitical scene of Iraq are surveyed. And finally the result of this research is that: disintegration of Iraq through the next decade is not possible.