Developing a model for predicting the behavior of offending driversbased on the theory of planned behavior

According to forensic medicine statistics from 2011 to2018, The average death from accidents in Iran has been 17500 people a year.Among the factors affecting the occurrence of a accidents, the determinant roleof drivers' attitudes and beliefs is of great importance in the manner and extentof compliance with the driving rules.

This research is applicable in terms of purpose and survey in terms ofdescriptive-analytical data collection method. The statistical population of thisstudy consisted of traffic offenders in Tehran who sample size was considered390 people using Cochran formula and cluster random sampling method. Datacollection tool included 44-item researcher-made questionnaire based oncomponents of the theory of planned behavior and seventeen incidentalviolations checklist. Descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean andstandard deviation as well as inferential statistics methods such as structuralequation method, regression analysis and discriminant coefficient were usedfor data analysis.

The findings indicate the high power of the components of attitude,behavioral intention, normative beliefs and perceived behavioral control inpredicting the behavior of driving offenders with different levels of incident.The difference between the two groups of low-violent and high- violentincident drivers was that the low-violent incident drivers had a strongerperceived control belief than the other group.

Regarding the influential role of attitudes and normative beliefsin determining the behavior of drivers, designing interventional programs isimportant for enhancing positive attitudes towards traffic safety observance.