The Foresight of Urban Development with Emphasis on Infrastructure Development (A Case study of Ardabil)

In the present study, the researchers have considered 30 major factors which were identified as indicators in the city's development in Ardabil. After determining the role, relationship and weight of the influential factors in the urban development, the indicators were fed into the Mike Mac software. Finally, after scoring for compiling the scenarios, they were processed using the Wizard scenario software. Finally, 38 cases were obtained for 30 key factors affecting the future of Ardabil urban development. Combining these possible scenarios, 7176 combined scenarios were extracted. These scenarios included 22 high-compatibility, 7012 low-compatibility, and 142 incompatible scenarios. The results of the study showed that two scenarios were more likely to occur in the future development of Ardabil of which one was favorable and under ideal conditions (progressive scenario) while the other one was relatively favorable and intermediate.