Prediction of climate change effects on wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) habitat suitability using ensemble modeling in Markazi province

Predicting the habitat suitability of wildlife in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Wild sheepis a wildlife species native to Iran. Therefore, this study aimed at predicting the effect of climate change on wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) habitat suitability using ensemble modeling in Markazi Province. In this regard, Five modeling approaches suchas Surface Range Envelop (SRE), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Random Forest (RF), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA), Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) were used to determine relationships between the occurrence of species and environmental factors under the ensemble framework by using Biomod2 and R software. R results showed that AUC values greater than 0.9 and functioning of all models been excellent. The mean temperature annual range and Annual precipitation had the most important role for habitat suitability of this species and 113.1% changes in O. orientalis habitat suitability was justified. R results of the model showed that 1211316.19 ha, (41.55%) of in Markazi province for the O. orientalis have had high habitat suitability. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenario O. orientalis might lose respectively 50.30% and 73.42% of its climatically suitable habitats due to climate change factors, by 2050, while in a number of areas 4.1% and 12.1%, the current unsuitable habitats may be converted to suitable. More habitat reduction in protected areas related to Varsan, Bazarjan, Mouteh, Jasb and Haftad-Gholeh areas. The lowest habitat reduction in the Razeghan and Chal-khaton areas. The results of this study can be used in planning, conservation and rehabilitation of O. orientalis and protected areas managemen.