Structural analysis of agricultural evolution in rural areas of Markazi province during 2003-2104

The formation of villages as the core of civilization and activity can be attributed to the environment. However, there have been major challenges in socioeconomic continuity of villages due to the decline of agricultural functionality as the most significant environmental function. This study aims to consider the evolution of agricultural functionalities in rural areas of Markazi Province over the last decade. Based on the objective, the study is applied one and descriptive – analytic in methodology. To this end, all villages with more than the 20 households in two censuses of 2003 and 2014 were taken into account. Then, all the similar agricultural variables in two time sections were extracted and 20 indicators for each section were defined and calculated. Following the statistical description and evaluation of the distribution of the indicators, agricultural evolution of rural areas was modelled in two time sections using structural equation modeling based on bootstrapping approach in AMOS Graphics environment. The path coefficients and their sign at the beginning of the period revealed that the rural areas’ agricultural identity at the beginning of the period was mainly based on farming than gardening and based on the land than water. However, the results of the end of the period showed that the land has been replaced by water. Therefore, the declining trend of changes in the agricultural functionalities the study area during this period was significantly influenced by water. Establishing an integrated organizational structure in order to land and water resources’ policy regulation and decision-making along with a provincial governance to implement the policies and decisions, beyond the sectoral approach, hopefully is a suggestion that can help to solve the problems agricultural identity of rural communities is engaged with.