Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on the Production of White Seedless Grapes during(2020 -2050) by using the statistical Downscaling of the HadCM3 Model output (Case Study: Golmakan Station)

The main effects of climate change, its impact on the production of agricultural products. Grapes are one of the most important strategic garden products .In this study, first, the daily values of the temperature were extracted according to the HADCM3 model during the base and future periods based on the RCP8/5 and RCP4/5 radiative induction scenarios for the future climate up to the end of the 21st century, and were then Downscaled measured by the change factor method. Then the daily data of temperature of precipitation, sunshine, maximum and maximum moisture content of the plant, and the results of Downscaled output with the use of the perceptron neural network in the A2019 material. The grape quantity was sim ulated for the future. The results of the climatic model show a rise in temperature and a decrease in future rainfall compared to baseline. The maximum RCP4/5 and RCP8.5 temperatures were increased by 2/7 and 3/2 ° C, respectively, and at least RCP4/5RCP8/5 increased by 1/8 and 2/9 ° C, respectively, and RCP4/5 and RCP8/5 were respectively 30 and 49 percen.The results of the simulation of white grape vine yield in the future relative to the base period with the RCP4/5 and RCP8/5 scenarios will be at least 2/7 and 2/04, respectively, and 2/3 and 3, respectively, and their average yields will be 0/54 and 0/86 tons per hectare.The results indicate that grape production will be affected by climate change in the future, and the output of the product will decrease.Such studies provide the opportunity for agricultural managers and practitioners in the relevant agencies to take appropriate measures, such as the proper location of gardens, to determine appropriate and appropriate future climate patterns to mitigate the potential adverse effects of new methods and practices. Provide adaptation to new and changing climate conditions.