Changes detection of birds and fishes indicators using cross-impact matrix of KSIM in Hamoon international wetlands

In recent decades, the drastic ecological changes of Hamoon international wetlands placed them on the Montreal blacklist. Therefore, this study aimed to predict and validate the changes of birds and fishes indicators for the future of these wetlands. KSIM is the used method (Kane Simulation Technique to measure the impact of different variables ranged from +3 (severe and positive effect) to -3 (severe and negative effect); is evaluated by environmental experts. Due to the limitations of this method in multivariate analysis (because of the numbers and abundance of variables), the affecting factors on indicators have been grouped into four categories of economic, social, wildlife management and water resources management. To obtain probabilities of variables and predict the value of indicators in 2034, the mode of experts' ideas was used and future trends were simulated. Model validation was performed by field surveying in two consecutive years. The results of the KSIM simulation estimated that the bird and fish indicators will continue to decrease during the period 2004-2034; from 0.77 to 0.28 and 0.60 to 0.22, respectively. Based on the validation results, the validity of the model is acceptable, which can be confidently used based on the results obtained from the experts' ideas in the cross-effects matrix. This study showed that the KSIM method can properly investigates the interactions between system components and therefore is able to predict future conditions. Economic and social problems lead to the decline of fishes and birds indicators; and deterioration of the situation put relatively more pressure on resources. The downward trend in wildlife management and water resources is also a serious warning that must be considered in decision-making processes.