Perspectives and Scenarios of the Taliban's Position in Future Afghanistan's Governance (with Emphasis on Media Approaches)

With the fall of the Taliban government in 2001, the group's presence in Afghanistan diminished, but over time, the Taliban strengthened their position and emerged as the strongest opposition player in the country, seeking to play an effective role in Afghanistan's future. The main question of the article is, what is the perspective of the Taliban's position in the future governance of Afghanistan? Accordingly, the main purpose of this article is to provide a perspective and analysis of scenarios related to the position of the Taliban in the future governance of Afghanistan. The theoretical framework of the article is Ibn Khaldun's theory of Asabiyyah. The research method is descriptive-analytical. The main hypothesis is that the Taliban's power in Afghanistan and in particular its influence and legitimacy, has increased since the signing of the peace agreement with the U.S as well as the atmosphere in the intera-Afghan talks. The findings show that the Taliban's position in Afghanistan's future cannot be ignored, and this group's interests must be considered in determining the country's future. It seems that the Taliban will pursue the issue of participation in power in the short term and during the intera-Afghan talks; but in the long run, it intends to seize full power in Afghanistan; the result will be the resistance of other groups and the continuation of insecurity in this country.