Evaluation of water supply and demand in Haraz basin with system dynamics model approach (Vensim)

Lack of water resources is one of the biggest and most difficult environmental issues that is increasing rapidly in Iran. Given the scarcity of water resources in the Haraz Basin, this paper develops a system dynamics (SD) model for water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and analyzes the balance between water supply and demand. For analysis of three scenarios to simulate WRCC from 2010 to 2030 Trahyshd and total water demand and the output value of secondary products as criteria for the study were selected WRCC Haraz basin. The results showed that the capacity to carry water resources in the Haraz Basin can not meet the demand for socio-economic development in the coming years and the third scenario can effectively compensate for water shortages. Accordingly, in order to ensure the sustainable use of water resources, water conservation policies should be greatly increased.