Effect of Renewable Energy Investments On Crude Oil Prices: The State Space Approach

Fossil energies is directly and indirectly effective in all activities, and interrupting its supply can cause various problems; This has led countries to diversify their energy resources and reduce their dependence on one carrier. On the other hand, environmental considerations have led to a more serious trend towards alternative energy sources. Therefore, determining the interaction between the price of crude oil (as an indicator of fossil fuels) and the use of alternative energy, given that over time the possibility of changing this relationship under the influence of technological development, economic policies and Relative prices, etc. are very important for energy policy and planning. Therefore, in this study, using state space models and applying Kalman filter, the variability of the interaction of crude oil prices and investment in alternative energy during the period 1995-2017 for the entire energy market, to determine the relationship between these two variables. And the possibility of variability of this relationship over time has been investigated. The results show that the price of crude oil has a significant effect on the investment of most alternative energy sources, but the effect of investing in alternative energy on the price of crude oil is weak or insignificant and no variability was observed in this regard. The effect of investing in solar and wind energy on the price of crude oil is somewhat acceptable that it is predicted that with the growth of these energies and increasing the share of energy market demand, their impact on crude oil prices will be greater than before.