Investigating the effects of climate changes on agronomical production and welfare in the Caspian coastal plain agro-ecological zone

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the current century. Among them, developing countries are more at risk, as they are mainly dependent on the agricultural sector, which is the most sensitive to water and weather. The present study aimed to explore the impact of climatic changes on agronomical productionand welfare in the Caspian coastal plain agro-ecological zone of Iran.

In this research, the climatically regionalization for the study zone was first used to carefully study the effects of climate changes. Then Mazandaran, Guilan and Golestan provinces were studied as Caspian coastal plain agro-ecological zone. Then, time series data published by the Iranian Meteorological Organization, Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, Customs and Statistics Center of Iran were used to collect the required data. Panel data approach and endogenous partial price equilibrium model were used to estimate the effects of climatic changes on total crop production and welfare in the Caspian coastal plain agro-ecological zone of Iran.

According to the results of the study, variables in log form such as Precipitation, temperature, wind speed, fertilizer, poison, seed, machinery and Area under cultivation at the 5% level affect the total agronomical production. Temperature and wind speed have a negative effect on agronomical production so that by increasing temperature and wind speed by one percent, agronomical production decreases by 0.23 and 0.27 percent, respectively. Precipitation, fertilizer, poison, seed, machinery and Area under cultivation variables had a positive effect on agronomical production so that by increasing these variables by one percent, agronomical production decreases by 0.17, 0.32, 0.10, 0.15, 0.13 and 0.22 percent, respectively. The results also showed that in all 14 scenarios studied, the performance of the agricultural sector in the Caspian coastal plain agro-ecological zone decreased. In all 14 scenarios, the consumer surplus decreases and the producer surplus increases. The total welfare surplus increased in scenarios 10 (WRE650) and 11 (SRESA1) and decreased in the rest of the scenarios.

According to the results of the study, in order to cope properly with climate change and increase yield per unit area of ​​crops, it is recommended to use appropriate methods such as optimal use of productive inputs, crop cultivation in suitable weather conditions, development of new technologies, etc.