A Study of Futures Studies and Scenario Making of Regional Power Position of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The end of the Cold War lifted the umbrella of the superpowers from Europe and many other regions. The pattern of influence of the superpowers changed. The regional powers took the initiative, and the literature on regional powers became popular. The Islamic Revolution, the Islamic State, Shiite ideology, and the challenge to liberal discourse, along with other components of national power such as geopolitics, established Iran as a regional power. Given the importance of this position, what scenarios for the future of Iran's regional power can be explored and evaluated. Future visualization, discovery and evaluation of possible and probable futures of regional power in Iran were followed by futures research method. Using the scenario-making method, optimistic, pessimistic and combined images of the future power of Iran's regions were drawn. By explaining the parts of the scenario and their evidences, the combined scenario; The continuation of the ideology of resistance and while emphasizing the case interaction with the West as a picture closer to the future reality of the position of power in the regions of Iran is more likely. Drawing scenarios of Iranian power in the form of a theoretical basis of a set of scenarios (relatively specific elements, driving forces and uncertainties) and a combined scenario showing the continuation of Iranian power and re-creating a revolutionary identity, adherence to resistance, fundamentalism and realistic idealism. Case interaction with the West and the continuation of the 2021 negotiations.