Investigating the effect of stock market demand side shock on a selection of macroeconomic variables in a randomized dynamic general equilibrium model

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of stock market demand side shock on a selection of macroeconomic variables with the approach of stochastic dynamic equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, data from the period 1368-98 with seasonal frequency and Bayesian method have been used to estimate the model parameters, in which the initial values ​​for the parameters are determined as the previous distribution and these initial values ​​are combined with the results of maximum likelihood estimation based on real data. It becomes. If the initial information in the previous distribution is complete and accurate and the maximum likelihood estimate cannot help the model estimate, the Bayesian method becomes a calibration. But if the previous distribution information was completely incorrect and inaccurate, the Bayesian method becomes the maximum likelihood method. In the intermediate state, Bayesian method is a combination of two methods of calibration and maximum likelihood. In general, capital market shocks can affect macroeconomic variables in two ways. The first route is household consumption expenditures and the second route is corporate investment expenditures. Therefore, the direct effects of stock price fluctuations on total expenditures have made the stock market known as a leading indicator in the economy and therefore have been considered in experimental studies. In this study, the shock from the capital market area is considered based on the market demand segment, in which the tendency of households to keep their assets in the form of stocks increases. The results show that private investment, production, inflation and consumption expenditures increase and interest rates decrease with the shock of a measure deviation from the demand side of the stock market.