فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 39 (پاییز 1400)

This paper, in terms of government financing bonds as a distinguishing feature of this study from other studies, seeks to examine the impulsive effects of government investment policy on private investment and its interaction with these bonds in a dynamic general equilibrium model. It is a coincidence with the Bayesian solution method in the 70s and 90s.Also, This article seeks to compare the effects of this policy by eliminating tax shocks. The results show that in the event that the government issues bonds to finance itself, initially public and private investment have crowd out effect and with the completion of government development projects and the preparation of infrastructure by the government, private investment will increase. Also, value added and price levels increase. Also, these results may not lead to such results if tax policies are not implemented. Due to government intervention and government investment, and thus the formation of the total investment by government, it is obviously, with this intervention, there is no traditional relationship between interest rates and private investment and the other hand, this traditional link, between interest rates and investment has been dispelled by domestic resource theorists. In particular, as Shaw and Mckinnon show, this relationship is eliminated in developing countries, although the lack of this relationship is also observed in other developed countries. Also, the results of the present study confirm these economic theories about the Iranian economy. And the other hand, after presenting the conclusions and recommendations of the model, other offers are also provided to public financing

Value-added tax is a type of consumption tax that encourages investment and production by strengthening savings incentives. However, its regressiveness nature is a weakness of this type of tax, and because of the higher tax burden imposed on low-income deciles, it has adverse effects on income distribution. In the face of this problem, two approaches have been adopted in the countries implementing the VAT system; the first is to exempt the group of goods that have a high share of low-income households' spending baskets, and the second is to design a multi-rate tax system so that luxury goods and services are subject to higher tax rates. Iran is also one of the countries that, by focusing on the first approach, exempted a number of goods and services from the VAT law approved in 2008 and expanded the scope of these exemptions in the recent amendments approved by the parliament in 2020. In the present article, using household income-expenditure data in 1397, the effect of applying each of the above tax structures on the degree of regressiveness and Gini coefficient has been evaluated. The findings of the article indicate that first of all, the implementation of the value added tax structure approved in 2008 reduces the intensity of the tax burden of rural income deciles, but does not have much effect on urban income deciles. Secondly, the extension of exemptions in the amendment approved by the parliament in 2020 compared to the previous law in 1387, not only does not help improve the severity of the regressiveness of VAT, but also increases the tax burden on all income deciles of urban and rural households. Third, exemptions do not have a significant effect on the Gini coefficient and cannot improve income inequality. Given that expanding the scope of exemptions has virtually no role in reducing income inequalities, it is recommended that while limiting the scope of exemptions, a logical framework for exemptions be designed.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of stock market demand side shock on a selection of macroeconomic variables with the approach of stochastic dynamic equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, data from the period 1368-98 with seasonal frequency and Bayesian method have been used to estimate the model parameters, in which the initial values ​​for the parameters are determined as the previous distribution and these initial values ​​are combined with the results of maximum likelihood estimation based on real data. It becomes. If the initial information in the previous distribution is complete and accurate and the maximum likelihood estimate cannot help the model estimate, the Bayesian method becomes a calibration. But if the previous distribution information was completely incorrect and inaccurate, the Bayesian method becomes the maximum likelihood method. In the intermediate state, Bayesian method is a combination of two methods of calibration and maximum likelihood. In general, capital market shocks can affect macroeconomic variables in two ways. The first route is household consumption expenditures and the second route is corporate investment expenditures. Therefore, the direct effects of stock price fluctuations on total expenditures have made the stock market known as a leading indicator in the economy and therefore have been considered in experimental studies. In this study, the shock from the capital market area is considered based on the market demand segment, in which the tendency of households to keep their assets in the form of stocks increases. The results show that private investment, production, inflation and consumption expenditures increase and interest rates decrease with the shock of a measure deviation from the demand side of the stock market.

In recent decades, different economies have experienced more financial decentralization policies than ever before. The reason for the increasing tendency of countries towards financial decentralization can be attributed to various goals such as increasing efficiency, reducing inflation, reducing unemployment, increasing economic growth, and so on. Therefore, the present study in the form of a spatial modeling seeks to answer the question that in the Iranian economy, by implementing policies of financial decentralization and transfer of power to the provinces, we can see a decrease in the misery index?The results of model evaluation estimated for the period 2006-2016 show that the effect of financial decentralization of expenditures and financial decentralization of income on the misery index of Iranian provinces has been positive, with a one percent increase in decentralization indices. Financial expenses and income increase the misery index by 0.061 and 0.063 percent, respectively.These results mean that the implementation of decentralization policies in the country can be accompanied by an increase, albeit a small one, in the index of economic misery. The analysis of the mentioned results indicates that in the developing country of Iran, decentralization will increase the differences between the regions, which indicates the inability of provincial governments to manage the resources allocated to them. Other findings of the article also indicate the positive effects of per capita income and annual population growth rate on the misery index. Per capita income coefficients and population growth rates were 0.18 and 0.016, respectively. In addition, the estimated coefficient for the literacy rate was -2.96%.

According to Note 1, Article 18 of Third Party Liability (TPL) Insurance Law 1395 (2016), Central Insurance of I. R. Iran (CII) in cooperation with Law Enforcement Force of I. R. Iran is obliged to work out to allow for the issuance of TPL policy based on the characteristics of the driver by the end of Sixth Five-Year Development Plan. As a result, in the premium calculation and the third party claims, the characteristics of the driver must be taken into account. Thus, using six-year data from an insurance company, the effect of the policyholders’ age on the incurred damages are investigated.In this study, initially, with the help of Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sample test, the age distribution of the reckless policyholders and drivers were compared. The results indicated that ‘age’ characteristic plays a role in causing damages. Due to the age differences among policyholders and the four major vehicle types, the calculations were distinctively performed based on each set of vehicles. Using conditional probability, the possibility of damages caused by different age groups was measured. Furthermore, the decision tree model was developed based on the three registered characteristics of the policyholders including age, gender, and type of customer.The results indicated that among the passenger cars, trucks, and motorcycles, the probability of damages caused by policyholders having less than 22, 30, and 25 years of age is respectively considerably high. Thus, according to actuarial principles, these policyholders must reasonably pay more premiums. The results further showed that more than 50% of the claims that involved fatality in all types of vehicles were related to drivers that had no insurance policy. Therefore, several drivers that share the same vehicle must pay more premiums. The age characteristic of the policyholders does not have any significant effect on claims involving buses or vans.

According to the financial literature, the agency problem can affect bank loans when there is information asymmetry. In this regard, the contract between the bank and bank agents, who are involved in the lending process, is considered crucial along with monetary incentives. Career concerns and characteristics of bank agents can also affect these agents' performance, and effectiveness of the bank’s monetary incentives. Based on the results of empirical and theoretical studies, the performance-based incentives or rewards (as opposed to lending-based incentives) and more career concerns of bank’s agents leads to an increase in the quality of lending, albeit by reducing risk-taking leads to reduction in the lending measure (profitability) of the bank. This paper analyzes the effects of monetary incentives and career concerns on micro-loans quality. The effects of monetary incentives were analyzed by studying how the members of the branch credit committee of an Iranian commercial bank were compensated by the bank. In fact, this bank changed from a volume-based compensation system into a compensation system based on both “lending volume” and “performance”. The paper also analyzes the impacts of career concerns on loan quality by considering the characteristics of branch credit committee’s members. Since, on the one hand, the dependent variable (loan quality) is a discrete ordinal variable and on the other hand, based on the Brant test᾿s result the proportional odds assumption was violated, the generalized ordinal logit model was used. The results indicated that “performance-based incentives” improved micro-lending quality. The results also showed that branch credit committees with more women and youth people had higher micro-lending quality.

The abundance of natural resources in a country is considered a blessing and led to increased growth and development, but in others it has appeared as a disaster and led to a decrease in investment in sectors such as health as an important factor of economic growth and rights, but in others it has appeared as a curse of resources and led to a decrease in investment in sectors such as health as an important factor of economic growth and rights. The present article uses the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to investigate the effect of oil dependence on life expectancy index as a health index in Iran during the period 1984-2017. The results showed that in the long run, the effect of oil rents as an indicator of dependence on natural resources on life expectancy in Iran has been inversed U-shaped. In other words, to a certain extent, the rent of oil resources has had a positive effect on life expectancy, but with the increase of dependence on oil resources, this effect has become negative. Then, to analyze the effect of institutional quality on the relationship between dependence on oil resources and health outcomes, the estimation results for Iran with three developing countries with poor institutional quality including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait, and three developed countries with strong institutional quality Norway, Canada and the United States were compared. The results showed that in countries with poor institutional quality, the relationship between oil rents and life expectancy is the same as in Iran, but in countries with strong institutional quality, oil rents have been ineffective on life expectancy. Therefore, the degree of development and institutional quality of the country is effective in turning oil rents into a blessing or a calamity.

According to the expansion of trade and the dependence of the production chain in economic subsectors on international trade, exchange rate fluctuations can have a great effect on the international trade and, consequently, on the value added of economic subsectors. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and value added of economic subsectors in Iran. For this purpose, the time series data for three main economic sectors and 12 selected subsections in the period 1971-2017 have been used. To estimate the coefficients, first the exchange rate fluctuations are calculated by TV-GARCH method and the total demand shocks is extracted using the Hedrick-Prescott filter and then the ARDL model is applicated to estimate the short and long run coefficients. The results show that exchange rate fluctuations follow a model with time varying coefficients. Exchange rate fluctuations in the short and long term have a negative and significant relationship with industrial value added, exchange rate fluctuations have no significant relations with value added of the service sector, and in the short and long term have a positive and significant relationship with value added of the mining sector. Also, the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations with some industrial subsectors are not compatible with theoretical literature, for example food and beverage industries have a positive and significant relations with exchange rate fluctuations in short and long run. Furthermore, chemical subsector value added in short have a significant negative relationship with exchange rate fluctuations but insignificant in long run.