Analysis of the Effects of Social Capital on the Strategy of Observing Social Distance and Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic with a System Dynamics Approach

The Covid-19 pandemic unprecedented risks to the health system as one of the main pillars of development and social welfare has emerged around the world and in Iran, and in the last 20 months, the world has witnessed new paradigms of human life, including the need to observe social distance to deal with this pervasive and global disease. The aim of this study was to determine the factors affecting the production and accumulation of social capital and its effects on the process of observing social distance as one of the non-pharmacological policies to deal with the prevalence of Covid-19 pandemic, in line with research from other countries and filling the gap available in Iranian research.

Extracting, quantifying and determining the equations of variables and determining the boundaries of the system in the process of production and accumulation of social capital in this study by summarizing the views of theorists, experts by conducting semi-structured interviews and combining it was done by fuzzy Delphi method. Modeling and data analysis was performed with a systemic approach and methodology of systems dynamics and the use of Wensim software.

After simulating the model and performing tests to confirm its validity, it was found that there is a gap between social capital and the process of observing social distance as one of the non-pharmacological policies of the health system to control the Covid-19 pandemic. There is a causal and positive relationship. By performing tests for model structure, system behavior and policy sensitivity analysis, optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenarios based on 8 selected policies, the optimal policy for long-term reforms and changes were selected and proposed.

The findings of this study, while explaining some unknown aspects of people’s behavior and the effects of social capital on the observance of social distance to control the Covid-19 pandemic, provide strategies for health policymakers that if implemented, we will see more and more public confidence as the main factor in the reproduction and accumulation of social capital and the support of people to transition from the current unfavorable situation to better conditions.