Predicting Possible Land Repurposing in the Urmia Lake Basin Based on Remote Sensing Data

One of the most significant and obvious effects of dams on nature is the change in the type of use of surrounding lands. The construction of the dam reservoir contributes to converting pasture lands into agricultural lands and industrial plants, and dryland farming to the irrigated cultivation of crops. The main purpose of this study is to predict possible land repurposing in the Urmia Lake Basin based on hydroclimatology and remote sensing data. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the classification algorithm for the land use map of Urmia Lake Basin, two Landsat satellite images taken at the same month with a time interval of 15 years were selected. In addition, Landsat satellite images taken by ETM+ (Landsat 7) and OLI (Landsat 8) sensors were used. According to the predicted land use plan over the next 20 years, ​​poorly vegetated rangelands, salt marsh lands, and bare lands will increase by 19%, 42%, and 17%, respectively. On the other hand, garden land areas, farming lands, rural residential areas, densely vegetated rangelands, moderately vegetated rangelands, and water zones will decrease by 16%, 11%, 1.11%, 3%, and 24%, respectively. This land repurposing forecast by 2038 indicates that the reduction in water zones and the increase in salt march areas will be very high. The land use prediction map for the Urmia Lake Basin by 2038 indicates that bare lands, poorly vegetated rangelands, and salt marsh lands will increase by 1668, 7257, and 4497 ​​square kilometers from 2018 to 2038. In contrast, farming lands, rural residential areas, densely vegetated rangelands, moderately vegetated rangelands, and water zones will decrease by 18356, 6622, 5578, 2974, 535, and 2911 square kilometers over a 20-year time period.