nalyzing the Reasons for the Decline of the USA from the Viewpoint of Long Cycles Theory

The issue of the reasons for the decline of the United States' power and position in the international system has long been debated among professors and analysts of international relations. However, there are still ambiguities and misconceptions in this regard, to the extent that some equate America's decline with its collapse or disintegration. Such a mistake stems from a lack of understanding of power transitions in international relations and the failure to use a proper explanatory theory. One of the theories that can help understand  to decline of the United States and the transition of power in the current international system is George Modelsky's theory of 'long cycles.' Using the case theory approach, the present paper chooses long-cycle theory to analyze the decline of the United States and, based on it, answers the three-dimensional question of what the decline of the United States is, why, and how it occurs. In response, the paper hypothesizes that of the four stages that the theory of the rise and fall of world powers enumerates, the United States is currently in the third stage of decentralization due to the emergence of new competitors. However, the author believes that due to the developments of the international system in recent decades, we may not necessarily see a full-scale world war in the fourth stage and the transfer of power to the new hegemon will be achieved without the outbreak of the third world war.