Estimation of Population Size of COVID-19 Patients Using Network Scale up in Jahrom, Spring 2020

The COVID-19 epidemic is currently the most important global health challenge. The aim of this study was to estimate the population size of COVID-19 patients in Jahrom, Iran, in the spring of 2020 using network scale up method.

2753 people from Jahrom were included in the study by electronic questionnaire. People were asked if they knew anyone with COVID-19 on their social network (probability method)? If yes, how many people do they know (frequency method)?

Sixty percent (1592 people) of the subjects were women and the majority 76% (2028 people) resided in Jahrom. Seven percent (182 people) were from Khafr district. The estimated overall prevalence of COVID-19 by network scale up method was estimated to be 14.3(95% CI: 17.5, 11.2). The prevalence of COVID-19 was estimated to be 17% (95% CI: 19.9, 14.1) based on clinical signs. Among the covered sections, Jahrom city had the highest prevalence related to Khafr district with a prevalence of 42.9% (95% CI: 45.5, 13.5). According to calculations, the prevalence of COVID-19 was estimated at 14.7% in urban areas and 11.7% in rural areas.

The actual prevalence of COVID-19 in Jahrom county in the spring of 2020 was calculated several times as many as reported. Therefore, active diagnostics using extensive testing and diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic patients can be useful for controlling the epidemic.