The role of intelligence aristocracy in predicting ethnic crises

Due to the existence of different ethnicities in the demographic composition of the country and changes in internal developments and some ethnic attitudes in neighboring countries, the need to pay attention to ethnic currents has doubled. Predicting ethnic crises in terms of practical purpose, and in terms of descriptive method with a survey approach of the statistical population is 30 security experts in the information society, which after examining the theoretical foundations and library studies and interviewing experts, 18 components In the form of 2 dimensions, "aristocracy over crisis actors and aristocracy over crisis roots and developments", a researcher-made questionnaire was identified and distributed after confirmation of validity (expert judgment) among 5 security experts. The result of Cronbach's alpha (0.86) was reliable The certificate that is distributed among the statistical community and using descriptive and inferential statistics indicators through SPSS software is analyzed and the results indicate that the dimensions and components of the identified information aristocracy include; Crisis actors and crisis-making roots and developments have a significant effect on predicting ethnic crises