The Impediments of Transition to Democracy in the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 5th Decade

The purpose of the present study is to review the most important impediments to transition to democracy in the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 5th decade with a futuristic approach. Among different methods of futurology, analysis of the selected process with a qualitative approach was used in this research. The research population was composed of a selection of academic experts in the subject of political transition and the sample size was determined by theoretical consecutive sampling. Data collection instrument was a semi-structured interview that reached theoretical saturation by doing 16 interviews. The results showed that some factors such as structural and normative integrity between the dominant elites, weak civil society, lack of economic prerequisites, and a rentier state are among the most important impediments to peaceful transition to democracy and strengthening that in the 5th decade of the revolution. These obstacles in front of democracy in the 5th decade of the revolution have a social and structural nature that decelerate the process of peaceful advancement to democracy and strengthening that by an accumulative effect on each other as well as on the political structure and cause that transition to democracy in the 5th decade of the revolution does not proceed with an expected speed.