Analysis of the Spatial Development of Karaj Urban Form with Futures Studies Approach

Planning is one of the important strategies of planners and urban planners for the development of the form and shape of the city in the future which both meet the needs of the city and citizens in the best way and preserves the urban environment. The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial development of the urban form of Karaj with a futures studies approach. The required data is collected through the library method (articles, meta-documents, urban plans, etc.) and using the opinion of experts (to identify key drivers, to compile and score hypotheses and to present scenarios). The statistical sample consists of 40 experts and researchers in the relevant field selected by snowball sampling. The comments and suggestions from this group have been collected using the Delphi method. To determine the factors affecting the spatial growth and development of Karaj in the period 1365-1395 (1986-2016), the Holdern model has been used. Shannon entropy has also been used to determine the density or dispersion of Karaj city areas. Morphol software has been used to compile the scenarios. The results obtained show that 95% of the growth and development of Karaj city during these 30 years has been due to population factors. Also, regions 1, 8, 5, and 9 have a compact form and the entropy number is close to the minimum while regions 10, 6, and 3 have an almost more scattered form. Among the 12 scenarios presented, 5 scenarios are in the intermediate state, 4 scenarios are catastrophic, and 3 are favorable scenarios.