Prediction of current and future potential range of F. ovina under two climate warning models (Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5) in southern Alborz rangeland habitats, Qazvin province

Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades and many studies have focused on its various aspects. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the future habitat of rangeland species present and future years, under climate warning models. In this regard, it should be investigated whether the increase in temperature will have a positive effect on the presence of species in the habitats of the distribution site or a negative effect?.

For this purpose, from 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and logistic regression model, to quantify climate change in the next three decades (2050) and to examine its effects on the current change of Ferula ovina species and the future, was used. Output maps were also grouped into four categories with a probability of occurrence between zero and one. These groups, unsuitable habitat, (0-0.25); Habitat almost suitable, (0.25-0.5); It shows a high proportion habitat (0.5-0.75) and a very high proportion habitat (0.75-1). Finally, by referring to the coefficients of climatic variables and topography in regression relations, effective variables for the current and future range of F.ovina were introduced.

Based on results; among the climatic and topographic variables, only the indicators related to the average temperature of the warmest season (BIO10) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) were identified as effective on the distribution of F.ovina species in present and future Alborz rangeland habitats. The characteristics increase as the climatic conditions become more difficult. Average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades, under milder (Rcp 4.5) and pessimistic (Rcp 8.5) scenarios, it will rise from 2.6 to 0.3 ° C. The height of suitable habitats will be 60 to 162 meters. As a result, adequate habitat levels (greater than 75% probability) decrease in response to climate change. Under climate scenarios, 15% of suitable habitat habitats will be lost by 2050 and current unsuitable habitats will increase by 48%. Overall; climate change and increasing temperature characteristics will cause the vertical expansion of F.ovina species to higher latitudes along the altitude gradient. This indicates that over the next three decades, the presence of F.ovina species in the habitats of the region will decrease and the risk of its removal from the southern Alborz ecosystems is evident.

According to the results obtained in this study, large changes in the distribution of this species are expected to occur along with climate change. These changes are such that they can limit the suitable climatic conditions for the life of this important and effective species in the southern Alborz rangeland habitats. Therefore, in order to improve the conditions, the least that can be recommended in such conditions is to control the degradation of F.ovina species habitat, by managing livestock grazing and preventing rangeland use change, and in general, to apply a conservation approach in these habitats. If a protective approach is applied; It is to be hoped that climate change, by itself, will not be able to remove, undermine, or even completely eliminate this valuable species from the flora of the region, and perhaps the physiological, phenological, and morphological adaptations of this species will help combat climate change. Therefore, while protecting it inside the habitat, it is necessary to think of measures to protect it outside the habitat with an approach close to nature. In this regard, collecting seeds and storing them in the gene bank of natural resources, introducing superior and drought-tolerant ecotypes with better structural and functional traits and preparing strong seeds from them, cultivating them in small one-hectare plots in botanical gardens and plant collections And finally their rangeland in habitats with poor and very poor status class; One of the basic requirements is its protection outside the habitat with an approach close to nature.