Investigation of management strategies to coping with climate change in order to reduce the poverty of farmer households in the Hamadan-Bahar plain

The occurrence of climate change through changes in the supply and price of crops, overshadows the profitability of production in this sector. Therefore, different forms of poverty would fluctuate with physical and economic access to food. Accordingly, to make effective policies to adapt to new climatic conditions, accurate estimates of the poverty changes that will occur as a result of climatic events are needed. According to this approach, in the present study, the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on the cultivation pattern of the Hamadan-Bahar plain, considering 2018 as the base year, were investigated, and the impact of water resources, production, income and rural poverty in the agricultural sector of this plain was evaluated. The results showed that with the considering a middle approach in predicting climate changes, along with annual increase in water pumping depth of 0/86 meters during the 20-year planning period, the present value of net producer income and after that, the indicators of poverty headcount ratio, poverty gap and poverty severity in the agricultural sector of the region would decrease by 13%, increase by 15, 33 and 17% compared to the baseline conditions, respectively. However, the adoption of management strategies would result in the improvement of various forms of poverty up to the level of 9, 20 and 10 percent, respectively.