Future Research of Urban Tourism Development (Case study: Ardabil city)

Today, tourism is one of the most important industries in the world, which also plays a key role in the development of cities. Therefore, planners seek to use new and principled methods for its development in the future. In this regard, this study intends to plan for the development of tourism in Ardabil based on the method of future research. The present study is descriptive-analytical in nature and applied in terms of purpose. The statistical population of this research is experts familiar with tourism in Ardabil city, 10 of them have been used as a selected sample of the research by snowball method. In this research, content analysis model (CVR), structural equation model (interaction analysis), scenario writing method and combined model PESTEL and SWOT have been used. In this regard, the results of the study have shown that the variables of human resources, sanctions, specialized management, health services, education, planning, diversification and competitiveness are the driving forces of this research. Also, out of many scenarios, 5 strong scenarios were obtained, 2 of which are optimistic. In the most optimistic state, tourism in Ardabil will be developed on the horizon of 1420. In this regard, the offensive strategy is the chosen strategy of research. Finally, it can be concluded that various factors are involved in the development of tourism in Ardabil, which is necessary in any planning for the development of tourism in Ardabil to pay attention to the key and fundamental role of these factors and in accordance with the extraction scenarios, Developed appropriate strategies.