Clarify the Phenomenon of Urban Decay in Iran

The need to investigate urban issues in a systematic way, connected to socio-economic fields, is one of the main tasks of urban planning. One of the fields that needs this type of analysis is the field of inefficiency and urban decay, which has been studied and investigated mainly in the form of inefficient and isolated urban textures. In this regard, the lack of recognition of the process of urban decay has made urban plans ineffective in many cases. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to identify the factors and results of urban decay in Iran, and to identify the trends of urban decay.

A quantitative method has been used for this research. The statistical sample equals 10 experts in the field of urban studies. Two models MicMac and ScenarioWizard have been used. The first model is used to identify the influential factors and the second model is used to predict the future trends of the explanatory indicators of urban decay in Iran.

45 indicators related to urban decay were compared. The causal cases were identified. Finally, it was found that widespread financial corruption, distribution of rents from oil (subsidized) revenues, non-integrated urban management, distribution of rents for jobs and government positions, influence of state-government institutions in the creation and joining of new areas to cities are the most causal factors of urban decay. Based on future trend analysis 8 scenarios imply on urban decay with higher rate and 14 scenarios urban decay will continue with current rate.

Paying attention to the results obtained in this research will be efficient for decision makers of macro planning and urban planning at the national and regional levels.